Models
NATIONAL PLASTIC TECHNOLOGIESBSE 531287Industrial Products
₹127per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹127implied FY26 P/E 8.4× · EV/EBITDA 5.0×
Against CMP ₹222.00−42.8%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹75₹232
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹190₹334
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 20 |
| PV of terminal value | 108 |
| Enterprise value | 128 |
| less net debt | (51) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 77 |
| ÷ 0.61 crore shares | ₹127 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 134 | 152 | 173 | 199 | 232 |
| 10.50% | 116 | 131 | 148 | 169 | 194 |
| 11.00% | 100 | 112 | 127 | 144 | 164 |
| 11.50% | 86 | 97 | 109 | 123 | 140 |
| 12.00% | 75 | 84 | 94 | 106 | 120 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹222.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 57 · 125 · 196 |
| Draws below the CMP | 96% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 210 | 269 | 311 | 341 | 375 | 413 | 454 | 500 | 550 |
| growth % | 57.3 | 28.3 | 15.4 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| EBITDA | 18 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 29 | 31 | 35 | 38 | 42 |
| margin % | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) |
| EBIT | 14 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 27 | 30 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 12 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| less capex | (16) | (15) | (7) | (14) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 11 | (2) | 5 | — | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 52, dividends at 9.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 27 | 30 |
| Interest at 8.4% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 16 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 25 | |
| Profit after tax | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (2) | (3) | (2) | 2 | 7 |
| Working capital | 47 | 52 | 57 | 63 | 69 | 76 |
| Net block and other assets | 124 | 131 | 137 | 143 | 147 | 149 |
| Debt | 52 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 52 | 52 |
| Equity | 60 | 70 | 80 | 92 | 106 | 121 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | |
| Investing (capex) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | (2) | (1) | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1) | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10% | 7.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹127 | (42.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.