Models
NHC FOODS LTD.BSE 517554Food Products
₹9per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹9implied FY26 P/E 45.9× · EV/EBITDA 32.2×
Against CMP ₹1.66+452.8%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies(2.9)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3188%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹7₹14
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1₹3
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 78 |
| PV of terminal value | 575 |
| Enterprise value | 653 |
| less net debt | (49) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 604 |
| ÷ 65.78 crore shares | ₹9 |
88% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 10 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| 10.50% | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 11.00% | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 11.50% | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 12.00% | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1.66; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 6 · 9 · 13 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.33 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 348 | 601 | 782 | 1,016 | 1,321 | 1,717 | 2,233 |
| growth % | — | 72.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 15 | 20 | 27 | 35 | 45 | 58 | 76 |
| margin % | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) |
| EBIT | 14 | 18 | 24 | 32 | 41 | 53 | 69 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (4) | (6) | (7) | (10) | (13) | |
| NOPAT | 15 | 20 | 26 | 34 | 44 | 57 | |
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| less capex | (0) | (16) | (21) | (21) | (20) | (16) | (8) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (38) | — | 1 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 55 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 1 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 35 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 49, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 18 | 24 | 32 | 41 | 53 | 69 |
| Interest at 12.8% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 18 | 25 | 35 | 47 | 63 | |
| Profit after tax | 12 | 15 | 21 | 28 | 38 | 52 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (4) | (2) | 10 | 38 | 88 |
| Working capital | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) |
| Net block and other assets | 364 | 383 | 401 | 418 | 429 | 430 |
| Debt | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| Equity | 182 | 197 | 218 | 246 | 285 | 336 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 17 | 24 | 32 | 44 | 58 | |
| Investing (capex) | (21) | (21) | (20) | (16) | (8) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (4) | 2 | 12 | 27 | 50 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (4) | 2 | 12 | 27 | 50 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 3.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹9 | 452.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.