Models
NIIT LEARNING SYSTEMS LTDNIITMTSOther Consumer Services
₹424per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹424implied FY26 P/E 22.8× · EV/EBITDA 14.5×
Against CMP ₹200.00+112.0%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies(6.7)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹329₹613
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹185₹444
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,315 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,401 |
| Enterprise value | 5,717 |
| less net debt | 127 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,844 |
| ÷ 13.78 crore shares | ₹424 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 438 | 470 | 508 | 555 | 613 |
| 10.50% | 404 | 431 | 462 | 500 | 545 |
| 11.00% | 376 | 398 | 424 | 455 | 492 |
| 11.50% | 351 | 370 | 392 | 417 | 447 |
| 12.00% | 329 | 346 | 364 | 386 | 411 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹200.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 335 · 420 · 529 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.52 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,554 | 1,653 | 1,952 | 2,303 | 2,718 | 3,207 | 3,784 | 4,466 |
| growth % | — | 6.4 | 18.1 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| EBITDA | 357 | 344 | 394 | 465 | 549 | 648 | 764 | 902 |
| margin % | 23.0 | 20.8 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 |
| less depreciation | (59) | (62) | (76) | (90) | (106) | (125) | (148) | (174) |
| EBIT | 298 | 282 | 318 | 375 | 443 | 523 | 617 | 728 |
| less tax on EBIT | (80) | (95) | (112) | (132) | (155) | (183) | ||
| NOPAT | 238 | 281 | 331 | 391 | 461 | 544 | ||
| add depreciation | 59 | 62 | 76 | 90 | 106 | 125 | 148 | 174 |
| less capex | (47) | (48) | (45) | (53) | (79) | (112) | (155) | (209) |
| less working-capital build | — | (44) | (52) | (62) | (73) | (86) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 231 | 199 | — | 273 | 306 | 343 | 382 | 424 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 260 | 262 | 264 | 265 | 265 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 267, dividends at 16.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 318 | 375 | 443 | 523 | 617 | 728 |
| Interest at 13.5% on debt | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | |
| Profit before tax | 339 | 407 | 487 | 581 | 692 | |
| Profit after tax | 248 | 254 | 304 | 364 | 434 | 517 |
| Dividends | (41) | (42) | (51) | (60) | (72) | (86) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 394 | 599 | 828 | 1,083 | 1,365 | 1,676 |
| Working capital | 246 | 290 | 343 | 404 | 477 | 563 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,420 | 2,383 | 2,356 | 2,343 | 2,350 | 2,385 |
| Debt | 267 | 267 | 267 | 267 | 267 | 267 |
| Equity | 1,543 | 1,755 | 2,008 | 2,312 | 2,674 | 3,106 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 299 | 358 | 427 | 509 | 606 | |
| Investing (capex) | (53) | (79) | (112) | (155) | (209) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (42) | (51) | (60) | (72) | (86) | |
| Net change in cash | 204 | 229 | 255 | 283 | 311 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 246 | 279 | 316 | 355 | 397 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18% | 20.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹424 | 112.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.