Models
NINTEC SYSTEMS LIMITEDNINSYS
₹500per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹500implied FY26 P/E 27.7× · EV/EBITDA 21.3×
Against CMP ₹815.00−38.6%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies36.9%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹383₹735
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹281₹935
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 195 |
| PV of terminal value | 737 |
| Enterprise value | 932 |
| less net debt | (2) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 930 |
| ÷ 1.86 crore shares | ₹500 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 517 | 557 | 604 | 662 | 735 |
| 10.50% | 476 | 509 | 548 | 594 | 651 |
| 11.00% | 441 | 468 | 500 | 539 | 584 |
| 11.50% | 410 | 433 | 461 | 492 | 530 |
| 12.00% | 383 | 403 | 426 | 453 | 484 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹815.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 390 · 497 · 634 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.69 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 83 | 140 | 170 | 207 | 251 | 305 | 371 | 451 |
| growth % | — | 68.3 | 21.7 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 20 | 33 | 44 | 53 | 65 | 78 | 95 | 116 |
| margin % | 24.0 | 23.5 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 25.7 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
| EBIT | 19 | 31 | 41 | 50 | 61 | 74 | 90 | 109 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (13) | (15) | (19) | (23) | (27) | ||
| NOPAT | 31 | 37 | 45 | 55 | 67 | 82 | ||
| add depreciation | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| less capex | (3) | (5) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (3) | (5) | (8) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (9) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 7 | 18 | — | 36 | 42 | 50 | 60 | 71 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 34 | 36 | 39 | 41 | 44 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 41 | 50 | 61 | 74 | 90 | 109 |
| Interest at 16.2% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 50 | 60 | 74 | 89 | 109 | |
| Profit after tax | 32 | 37 | 45 | 55 | 67 | 81 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 36 | 78 | 128 | 187 | 258 |
| Working capital | 20 | 24 | 29 | 35 | 43 | 52 |
| Net block and other assets | 124 | 122 | 120 | 119 | 118 | 120 |
| Debt | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Equity | 92 | 129 | 174 | 229 | 296 | 377 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 36 | 44 | 53 | 65 | 79 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (2) | (3) | (5) | (8) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 35 | 42 | 50 | 60 | 71 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 35 | 42 | 50 | 60 | 71 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 25.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹500 | (38.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.