Models
Nitin Castings LimitedBSE 508875Industrial Products
₹145per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹145implied FY26 P/E 7.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.9×
Against CMP ₹450.00−67.8%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹102₹231
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹260₹650
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 14 |
| PV of terminal value | 75 |
| Enterprise value | 89 |
| less net debt | (14) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 75 |
| ÷ 0.51 crore shares | ₹145 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 151 | 166 | 183 | 204 | 231 |
| 10.50% | 136 | 148 | 162 | 179 | 200 |
| 11.00% | 123 | 133 | 145 | 159 | 176 |
| 11.50% | 112 | 120 | 130 | 142 | 156 |
| 12.00% | 102 | 109 | 118 | 128 | 139 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹450.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 114 · 145 · 183 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 133 | 149 | 151 | 147 | 143 | 140 | 136 | 133 | 130 |
| growth % | 38.2 | 11.5 | 1.2 | (2.3) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) |
| EBITDA | 10 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| margin % | 7.2 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | 8 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| NOPAT | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (0) | (6) | (8) | (11) | (10) | (8) | (6) | (4) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1 | 12 | 9 | — | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 14, dividends at 14.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Interest at 7.4% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | |
| Profit after tax | 11 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Dividends | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (1) | (1) | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Working capital | 25 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 22 |
| Net block and other assets | 116 | 124 | 130 | 134 | 136 | 137 |
| Debt | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Equity | 92 | 98 | 104 | 109 | 115 | 120 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (8) | (6) | (4) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | (2) | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1) | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2.5% | 8.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹145 | (67.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.