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Model Note · NMDC LTD. · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
NMDC LTD. Discounted cash flow · base FY26
NMDC LTD.
Value per share, this model₹182
CMP 2026-09-10₹82.40
Difference121.2%
Growth the CMP implies(3.0)%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of NMDC LTD., built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
30% a year
FY26 50.5% · 5-yr CAGR 15.8%
EBITDA margin
28.9%
FY26 28.9% · 5-yr average 41.8%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
1.5% · 9.9%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 1.5% · 9.9%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
35.3% · 26.9%
129 working-capital days · effective 26.9%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.89
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹5,727 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹5,727 cr
Shares
879.18 crore
879.18 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
32,071
41,692
54,200
70,460
91,598
1,19,077
growth %
50.5
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
EBITDA
9,260
12,049
15,664
20,363
26,472
34,413
Depreciation
(477)
(625)
(813)
(1,057)
(1,374)
(1,786)
NOPAT
6,420
8,351
10,856
14,113
18,346
23,850
less capex
(3,171)
(4,128)
(4,268)
(4,122)
(3,504)
(2,143)
less working-capital build
—
(3,396)
(4,415)
(5,740)
(7,462)
(9,700)
Free cash flow to firm
—
1,452
2,985
5,308
8,755
13,793
Present value
1,378
2,553
4,089
6,076
8,624
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · NMDC LTD. · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
22,720
PV of the terminal value (86% of EV)
1,43,246
Enterprise value
1,65,966
less net debt
(5,727)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
1,60,239
÷ 879.18 crore shares
₹182
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
189
205
225
248
278
10.5%
172
186
202
221
244
11.0%
158
169
182
198
217
11.5%
145
155
166
179
194
12.0%
134
143
152
163
176
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
