Models
NOIDA TOLL BRIDGE CO LTDNOIDATOLL
₹9per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹9implied FY26 P/E 5.7× · EV/EBITDA 17.1×
Against CMP ₹3.80+130.2%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies(7.8)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹6₹14
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3₹7
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 50 |
| PV of terminal value | 156 |
| Enterprise value | 206 |
| less net debt | (43) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 163 |
| ÷ 18.62 crore shares | ₹9 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| 10.50% | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 11.00% | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 11.50% | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 12.00% | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 7 · 9 · 11 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.34 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 24 | 21 | 40 | 43 | 46 | 49 | 52 | 55 | 59 |
| growth % | 47.0 | (12.2) | 93.1 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| EBITDA | 3 | 4 | (219) | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 17 |
| margin % | 12.7 | 18.0 | (544.7) | 28.1 | 28.1 | 28.1 | 28.1 | 28.1 | 28.1 |
| less depreciation | (41) | (39) | (27) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| EBIT | (38) | (35) | (247) | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| less tax on EBIT | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |||
| NOPAT | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | |||
| add depreciation | 41 | 39 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| less capex | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 24 | (4) | 15 | — | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 43, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Profit after tax | 27 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 8 | 16 | 26 | 36 | 48 |
| Working capital | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Net block and other assets | 103 | 104 | 105 | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| Debt | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 |
| Equity | (12) | (4) | 6 | 16 | 27 | 39 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6.5% | 28.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹9 | 130.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.