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Model Note · NTPC LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
NTPC LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
NTPC LTD
Value per share, this model₹203
CMP 2026-09-10₹333.40
Difference(39.0)%
Growth the CMP implies7.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of NTPC LTD, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
-0.5% a year
FY26 (0.4)% · 5-yr CAGR 10.9%
EBITDA margin
29.5%
FY26 29.5% · 5-yr average 28.9%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
10.5% · 23.5%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 10.5% · 23.5%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
23.2% · -11.9%
85 working-capital days · effective (11.9)%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.56
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹2,63,837 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹2,63,837 cr
Shares
969.67 crore
969.67 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
1,87,385
1,86,448
1,85,515
1,84,588
1,83,665
1,82,747
growth %
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
EBITDA
55,286
55,002
54,727
54,453
54,181
53,910
Depreciation
(19,629)
(19,577)
(19,479)
(19,382)
(19,285)
(19,188)
NOPAT
39,900
39,641
39,442
39,245
39,049
38,854
less capex
(44,050)
(43,815)
(38,541)
(33,318)
(28,147)
(23,026)
less working-capital build
—
217
216
215
214
213
Free cash flow to firm
—
15,620
20,597
25,524
30,401
35,229
Present value
14,826
17,612
19,663
21,099
22,027
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · NTPC LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
95,226
PV of the terminal value (79% of EV)
3,65,869
Enterprise value
4,61,095
less net debt
(2,63,837)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
1,97,258
÷ 969.67 crore shares
₹203
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
220
257
302
357
426
10.5%
180
211
248
293
347
11.0%
146
173
203
240
283
11.5%
117
140
165
196
231
12.0%
92
111
133
158
188
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
