Models
OCCL LIMITEDOCCLLTD
₹85per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹85implied FY26 P/E 5.7× · EV/EBITDA 5.8×
Against CMP ₹154.65−45.1%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹64₹127
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹76₹183
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 148 |
| PV of terminal value | 356 |
| Enterprise value | 504 |
| less net debt | (80) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 424 |
| ÷ 5.00 crore shares | ₹85 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 88 | 95 | 104 | 114 | 127 |
| 10.50% | 81 | 86 | 93 | 102 | 112 |
| 11.00% | 74 | 79 | 85 | 92 | 100 |
| 11.50% | 69 | 73 | 78 | 83 | 90 |
| 12.00% | 64 | 67 | 71 | 76 | 82 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹154.65; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (12) · 84 · 157 |
| Draws below the CMP | 89% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 307 | 506 | 658 | 855 | 1,111 | 1,445 | 1,878 |
| growth % | — | 64.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 53 | 87 | 113 | 147 | 191 | 249 | 323 |
| margin % | 17.3 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (29) | (37) | (49) | (63) | (82) | (107) |
| EBIT | 32 | 58 | 76 | 98 | 128 | 166 | 216 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (11) | (14) | (18) | (23) | (30) | |
| NOPAT | 50 | 65 | 85 | 110 | 143 | 186 | |
| add depreciation | 21 | 29 | 37 | 49 | 63 | 82 | 107 |
| less capex | (13) | (16) | (21) | (35) | (56) | (86) | (128) |
| less working-capital build | — | (46) | (59) | (77) | (100) | (130) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 57 | — | 36 | 39 | 41 | 40 | 34 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 34 | 33 | 31 | 27 | 21 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 84, dividends at 26.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 58 | 76 | 98 | 128 | 166 | 216 |
| Interest at 7.2% on debt | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| Profit before tax | 70 | 92 | 122 | 160 | 210 | |
| Profit after tax | 48 | 60 | 79 | 105 | 138 | 181 |
| Dividends | (12) | (16) | (21) | (27) | (36) | (47) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | 19 | 32 | 40 | 38 | 20 |
| Working capital | 152 | 197 | 256 | 333 | 433 | 563 |
| Net block and other assets | 446 | 430 | 416 | 409 | 412 | 433 |
| Debt | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 |
| Equity | 431 | 475 | 534 | 611 | 713 | 846 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 52 | 69 | 91 | 120 | 158 | |
| Investing (capex) | (21) | (35) | (56) | (86) | (128) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (16) | (21) | (27) | (36) | (47) | |
| Net change in cash | 15 | 13 | 8 | (2) | (18) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 31 | 34 | 35 | 34 | 29 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 17.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹85 | (45.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.