₹1,053per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,053implied FY26 P/E 29.6× · EV/EBITDA 22.0×
Against CMP ₹533.75+97.3%close of 2026-09-21
Growth the CMP implies1.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹801₹1,556
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 377 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,665 |
| Enterprise value | 2,042 |
| less net debt | 16 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,058 |
| ÷ 1.95 crore shares | ₹1,053 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,089 | 1,174 | 1,276 | 1,400 | 1,556 |
| 10.50% | 1,000 | 1,071 | 1,154 | 1,254 | 1,376 |
| 11.00% | 924 | 984 | 1,053 | 1,135 | 1,233 |
| 11.50% | 859 | 909 | 968 | 1,036 | 1,116 |
| 12.00% | 801 | 845 | 894 | 952 | 1,019 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹533.75; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 811 · 1,038 · 1,339 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.60 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.57 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18 | 63 | 147 | 498 | 648 | 842 | 1,094 | 1,423 | 1,850 |
| growth % | 197.9 | 247.8 | 133.4 | 238.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 2 | 10 | 25 | 93 | 120 | 157 | 204 | 265 | 344 |
| margin % | 9.1 | 15.4 | 17.1 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) |
| EBIT | 1 | 9 | 24 | 92 | 120 | 156 | 202 | 263 | 342 |
| less tax on EBIT | (23) | (30) | (39) | (51) | (66) | (86) | |||
| NOPAT | 69 | 90 | 117 | 152 | 197 | 256 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| less capex | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (44) | (57) | (74) | (96) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (0) | 1 | 14 | — | 57 | 74 | 96 | 124 | 160 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 54 | 63 | 74 | 86 | 100 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 92 | 120 | 156 | 202 | 263 | 342 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 120 | 156 | 202 | 263 | 342 | |
| Profit after tax | 70 | 90 | 117 | 152 | 197 | 256 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | 73 | 146 | 242 | 366 | 526 |
| Working capital | 112 | 145 | 189 | 245 | 319 | 415 |
| Net block and other assets | 128 | 127 | 127 | 126 | 126 | 126 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 141 | 231 | 348 | 499 | 696 | 953 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 57 | 74 | 96 | 125 | 163 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 57 | 74 | 96 | 124 | 160 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 57 | 74 | 96 | 124 | 160 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 18.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,053 | 97.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.