ONIX SOLAR ENERGY LTD. — valuation model

ONIX SOLAR ENERGY LTD.ONIXSOLAR

₹207per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹207implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 14.8×

Against CMP ₹372.85−44.4%close of 8 Oct 2026

Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs

Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹159₹305

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹262₹464

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	195
PV of terminal value	606
Enterprise value	801
less net debt	(37)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	764
÷ 3.69 crore shares	₹207

76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	214	231	251	275	305
10.50%	197	211	227	246	270
11.00%	182	194	207	223	242
11.50%	170	179	191	204	219
12.00%	159	167	177	188	200

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹372.85; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	170 · 206 · 249
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.73
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.64
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.01

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	241	260	281	303	328	354
growth %	—	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0
EBITDA	54	59	63	68	74	80
margin %	22.5	22.5	22.5	22.5	22.5	22.5
less depreciation	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
EBIT	53	58	62	67	73	79
less tax on EBIT	0	0	0	0	0	0
NOPAT	53	58	62	67	73	79
add depreciation	1	1	1	1	1	1
less capex	0	0	(0)	(1)	(1)	(1)
less working-capital build	—	(15)	(16)	(17)	(18)	(20)
Free cash flow to firm	—	44	47	51	54	58
Discount factor		0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value		42	40	39	38	36

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 37, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	53	58	62	67	73	79
Interest at 12.6% on debt		(5)	(5)	(5)	(5)	(5)
Profit before tax		53	58	63	68	74
Profit after tax	0	53	58	63	68	74
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	0	39	82	128	177	231
Working capital	184	198	214	231	250	270
Net block and other assets	661	660	660	659	659	659
Debt	37	37	37	37	37	37
Equity	784	837	895	958	1,026	1,100
Balance check	0	0	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		39	43	46	51	55
Investing (capex)		0	(0)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		39	42	46	50	54
Free cash flow to equity		39	42	46	50	54

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	8%	22.5%	11.00%	5%	₹207	(44.4)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.