Models
ORBIT EXPORTS LIMITEDORBTEXPTextiles & Apparels
₹142per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹142implied FY26 P/E 8.9× · EV/EBITDA 7.5×
Against CMP ₹237.01−40.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹110₹204
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹135₹279
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 99 |
| PV of terminal value | 278 |
| Enterprise value | 377 |
| less net debt | (2) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 375 |
| ÷ 2.65 crore shares | ₹142 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 146 | 157 | 169 | 184 | 204 |
| 10.50% | 135 | 144 | 154 | 166 | 181 |
| 11.00% | 126 | 133 | 142 | 152 | 164 |
| 11.50% | 118 | 124 | 131 | 139 | 149 |
| 12.00% | 110 | 116 | 122 | 129 | 137 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹237.01; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 110 · 141 · 175 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 197 | 200 | 214 | 231 | 249 | 269 | 291 | 314 | 339 |
| growth % | 55.5 | 1.5 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 55 | 52 | 50 | 50 | 54 | 58 | 63 | 68 | 74 |
| margin % | 27.7 | 25.9 | 23.4 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 |
| less depreciation | (14) | (15) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (19) | (20) | (22) |
| EBIT | 41 | 37 | 36 | 35 | 38 | 41 | 45 | 48 | 52 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (12) | (13) | |||
| NOPAT | 26 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 | 39 | |||
| add depreciation | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 22 |
| less capex | (19) | (4) | (5) | (13) | (14) | (17) | (20) | (23) | (26) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 30 | 38 | 28 | — | 24 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 23 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 17 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 35 | 38 | 41 | 45 | 48 | 52 |
| Interest at 18% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 37 | 40 | 44 | 47 | 51 | |
| Profit after tax | 33 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 |
| Dividends | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 27 | 51 | 76 | 102 | 128 |
| Working capital | 69 | 74 | 80 | 87 | 94 | 101 |
| Net block and other assets | 301 | 299 | 299 | 300 | 302 | 307 |
| Debt | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Equity | 307 | 335 | 365 | 398 | 433 | 471 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 38 | 41 | 45 | 48 | 52 | |
| Investing (capex) | (14) | (17) | (20) | (23) | (26) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 26 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 24 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 26 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 21.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹142 | (40.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.