Models
ORIENT BELL LIMITEDORIENTBELLConsumer Durables
₹76per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹76implied FY26 P/E 5.3× · EV/EBITDA 3.4×
Against CMP ₹363.00−79.1%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3147%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹63₹101
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹247₹442
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 70 |
| PV of terminal value | 61 |
| Enterprise value | 131 |
| less net debt | (19) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 112 |
| ÷ 1.47 crore shares | ₹76 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 78 | 82 | 87 | 93 | 101 |
| 10.50% | 74 | 77 | 81 | 86 | 92 |
| 11.00% | 70 | 73 | 76 | 80 | 85 |
| 11.50% | 66 | 69 | 71 | 75 | 79 |
| 12.00% | 63 | 65 | 68 | 70 | 74 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹363.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 42 · 76 · 109 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.97 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.18 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.13 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 705 | 674 | 667 | 691 | 716 | 741 | 767 | 793 | 821 |
| growth % | 7.8 | (4.3) | (1.2) | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | 47 | 21 | 25 | 38 | 39 | 41 | 42 | 44 | 45 |
| margin % | 6.7 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (21) | (23) | (22) | (23) | (24) | (25) | (25) | (26) |
| EBIT | 26 | (1) | 2 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |||
| NOPAT | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | |||
| add depreciation | 21 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 26 |
| less capex | (60) | (64) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (12) | (18) | (24) | (32) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (26) | (25) | 27 | — | 27 | 22 | 17 | 12 | 6 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 26 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 4 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 30, dividends at 5.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 16 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 |
| Interest at 9.9% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | |
| Profit after tax | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | 34 | 54 | 68 | 77 | 80 |
| Working capital | 72 | 74 | 77 | 79 | 82 | 85 |
| Net block and other assets | 442 | 425 | 412 | 406 | 405 | 410 |
| Debt | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Equity | 329 | 338 | 348 | 358 | 369 | 380 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 30 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6) | (12) | (18) | (24) | (32) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 25 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 4 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 5.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹76 | (79.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.