Models
ORIENT ELECTRIC LIMITEDORIENTELECConsumer Durables
₹62per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹62implied FY26 P/E 12.1× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×
Against CMP ₹161.92−61.6%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3167%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹50₹87
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹149₹218
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 431 |
| PV of terminal value | 892 |
| Enterprise value | 1,323 |
| less net debt | 5 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,328 |
| ÷ 21.34 crore shares | ₹62 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 64 | 68 | 73 | 79 | 87 |
| 10.50% | 60 | 63 | 67 | 72 | 78 |
| 11.00% | 56 | 59 | 62 | 66 | 71 |
| 11.50% | 53 | 55 | 58 | 61 | 65 |
| 12.00% | 50 | 52 | 54 | 57 | 60 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹161.92; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 45 · 62 · 79 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,529 | 2,812 | 3,094 | 3,326 | 3,576 | 3,844 | 4,132 | 4,442 | 4,775 |
| growth % | 3.3 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 151 | 163 | 204 | 219 | 236 | 254 | 273 | 293 | 315 |
| margin % | 6.0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| less depreciation | (54) | (59) | (79) | (77) | (82) | (88) | (95) | (102) | (110) |
| EBIT | 97 | 104 | 125 | 142 | 154 | 165 | 178 | 191 | 205 |
| less tax on EBIT | (37) | (40) | (43) | (46) | (49) | (53) | |||
| NOPAT | 105 | 114 | 122 | 132 | 142 | 152 | |||
| add depreciation | 54 | 59 | 79 | 77 | 82 | 88 | 95 | 102 | 110 |
| less capex | (114) | (175) | (55) | (34) | (36) | (55) | (78) | (103) | (132) |
| less working-capital build | — | (33) | (36) | (38) | (41) | (44) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 76 | (57) | 32 | — | 127 | 120 | 111 | 99 | 86 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 121 | 103 | 85 | 69 | 54 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 26, dividends at 33.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 142 | 154 | 165 | 178 | 191 | 205 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 152 | 163 | 176 | 189 | 203 | |
| Profit after tax | 96 | 112 | 121 | 130 | 140 | 151 |
| Dividends | (32) | (38) | (40) | (43) | (47) | (50) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 32 | 120 | 198 | 264 | 315 | 349 |
| Working capital | 444 | 477 | 513 | 551 | 592 | 637 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,191 | 1,144 | 1,111 | 1,094 | 1,095 | 1,117 |
| Debt | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Equity | 760 | 835 | 915 | 1,002 | 1,095 | 1,196 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 161 | 174 | 187 | 201 | 216 | |
| Investing (capex) | (36) | (55) | (78) | (103) | (132) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (38) | (40) | (43) | (47) | (50) | |
| Net change in cash | 88 | 78 | 66 | 51 | 34 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 126 | 118 | 109 | 98 | 84 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 6.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹62 | (61.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.