Models
ORIENT HOTELS LTDORIENTHOTLeisure Services
₹89per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹89implied FY26 P/E 23.8× · EV/EBITDA 12.7×
Against CMP ₹143.80−38.3%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies24.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹68₹131
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹80₹149
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 393 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,277 |
| Enterprise value | 1,670 |
| less net debt | (86) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,584 |
| ÷ 17.86 crore shares | ₹89 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 92 | 99 | 107 | 118 | 131 |
| 10.50% | 84 | 90 | 97 | 106 | 116 |
| 11.00% | 78 | 83 | 89 | 96 | 104 |
| 11.50% | 72 | 77 | 81 | 87 | 94 |
| 12.00% | 68 | 71 | 75 | 80 | 86 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹143.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 69 · 88 · 111 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.63 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.52 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.52 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 395 | 393 | 440 | 494 | 556 | 625 | 703 | 791 | 890 |
| growth % | 79.8 | (0.3) | 11.8 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 112 | 98 | 110 | 132 | 148 | 166 | 187 | 210 | 237 |
| margin % | 28.5 | 24.9 | 25.0 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 |
| less depreciation | (23) | (24) | (33) | (34) | (39) | (44) | (49) | (55) | (62) |
| EBIT | 90 | 74 | 77 | 97 | 109 | 123 | 138 | 155 | 174 |
| less tax on EBIT | (21) | (24) | (27) | (30) | (34) | (38) | |||
| NOPAT | 76 | 85 | 96 | 108 | 121 | 136 | |||
| add depreciation | 23 | 24 | 33 | 34 | 39 | 44 | 49 | 55 | 62 |
| less capex | (32) | (75) | (71) | (35) | (39) | (46) | (54) | (64) | (75) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 71 | 15 | 29 | — | 85 | 93 | 102 | 112 | 123 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 80 | 79 | 79 | 78 | 77 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 97, dividends at 9.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 97 | 109 | 123 | 138 | 155 | 174 |
| Interest at 11.1% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 98 | 112 | 127 | 144 | 164 | |
| Profit after tax | 91 | 77 | 87 | 99 | 113 | 128 |
| Dividends | (9) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10 | 79 | 155 | 239 | 332 | 434 |
| Working capital | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Net block and other assets | 967 | 967 | 969 | 974 | 983 | 995 |
| Debt | 97 | 97 | 97 | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Equity | 762 | 831 | 910 | 1,000 | 1,101 | 1,217 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 115 | 131 | 148 | 167 | 189 | |
| Investing (capex) | (39) | (46) | (54) | (64) | (75) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (13) | |
| Net change in cash | 69 | 76 | 84 | 93 | 102 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 76 | 85 | 94 | 104 | 115 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 26.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹89 | (38.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.