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Model Note · ORIENTAL RAIL INFRA L · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
ORIENTAL RAIL INFRA L Discounted cash flow · base FY26
ORIENTAL RAIL INFRA L
Value per share, this model₹94
CMP 2026-09-10₹123.53
Difference(24.1)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of ORIENTAL RAIL INFRA L, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
-5% a year
FY26 (4.8)% · 5-yr CAGR 21.1%
EBITDA margin
14.9%
FY26 14.9% · 5-yr average 12.9%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
1.7% · 4.4%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 1.7% · 4.4%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
74.4% · 25.8%
272 working-capital days · effective 25.8%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta —
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹220 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹220 cr
Shares
6.71 crore
6.71 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
573
545
517
492
467
444
growth %
(4.8)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
EBITDA
85
81
77
73
70
66
Depreciation
(9)
(9)
(9)
(8)
(8)
(8)
NOPAT
56
53
51
48
46
43
less capex
(25)
(24)
(20)
(16)
(12)
(9)
less working-capital build
—
21
20
19
18
17
Free cash flow to firm
—
60
60
60
60
59
Present value
57
51
46
41
37
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · ORIENTAL RAIL INFRA L · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
233
PV of the terminal value (73% of EV)
616
Enterprise value
849
less net debt
(220)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
629
÷ 6.71 crore shares
₹94
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
98
107
118
131
148
10.5%
88
96
105
116
129
11.0%
80
86
94
103
113
11.5%
73
78
84
92
100
12.0%
66
71
77
83
90
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
