Models
OVOBEL FOODS LTD.BSE 530741Food Products
₹163per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹163implied FY26 P/E 4.0× · EV/EBITDA 6.6×
Against CMP ₹263.80−38.2%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹117₹255
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹106₹285
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 30 |
| PV of terminal value | 148 |
| Enterprise value | 178 |
| less net debt | (23) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 155 |
| ÷ 0.95 crore shares | ₹163 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 170 | 185 | 204 | 226 | 255 |
| 10.50% | 153 | 166 | 182 | 200 | 222 |
| 11.00% | 140 | 150 | 163 | 178 | 196 |
| 11.50% | 128 | 137 | 148 | 160 | 175 |
| 12.00% | 117 | 125 | 134 | 145 | 157 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹263.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 24 · 161 · 265 |
| Draws below the CMP | 90% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 221 | 175 | 189 | 257 | 334 | 434 | 564 | 733 | 953 |
| growth % | 77.0 | (21.1) | 8.0 | 36.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 51 | 21 | 9 | 27 | 35 | 46 | 59 | 77 | 100 |
| margin % | 23.1 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (2) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (10) | (13) | (17) |
| EBIT | 50 | 20 | 6 | 22 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 64 | 83 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (8) | (10) | (13) | (18) | (23) | |||
| NOPAT | 16 | 21 | 27 | 36 | 46 | 60 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 17 |
| less capex | (1) | (15) | (15) | (7) | (8) | (10) | (13) | (16) | (21) |
| less working-capital build | — | (15) | (19) | (25) | (33) | (42) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 40 | (8) | (10) | — | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 28, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 22 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 64 | 83 |
| Interest at 6.8% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 27 | 36 | 47 | 62 | 81 | |
| Profit after tax | 24 | 20 | 26 | 34 | 45 | 59 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 27 | 40 |
| Working capital | 50 | 64 | 84 | 109 | 142 | 184 |
| Net block and other assets | 114 | 116 | 119 | 122 | 125 | 129 |
| Debt | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Equity | 110 | 130 | 156 | 190 | 235 | 294 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 11 | 14 | 19 | 25 | 33 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8) | (10) | (13) | (16) | (21) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 13 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 13 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 10.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹163 | (38.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.