Models
Palco Metals LimitedBSE 539121Non - Ferrous Metals
₹101per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹101implied FY26 P/E 6.3× · EV/EBITDA 5.6×
Against CMP ₹154.15−34.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(18.5)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹62₹177
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹89₹193
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 15 |
| PV of terminal value | 52 |
| Enterprise value | 67 |
| less net debt | (27) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 40 |
| ÷ 0.40 crore shares | ₹101 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 106 | 119 | 135 | 154 | 177 |
| 10.50% | 93 | 104 | 116 | 131 | 150 |
| 11.00% | 81 | 90 | 101 | 113 | 128 |
| 11.50% | 71 | 79 | 88 | 98 | 110 |
| 12.00% | 62 | 69 | 77 | 85 | 95 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹154.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (0) · 99 · 180 |
| Draws below the CMP | 80% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.60 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 160 | 194 | 246 | 293 | 349 | 415 | 494 | 588 | 700 |
| growth % | (8.0) | 21.5 | 26.7 | 19.2 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| EBITDA | 3 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 24 | 29 |
| margin % | 1.8 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) |
| EBIT | 2 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 25 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 18 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| less capex | — | (12) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (7) | (9) | (10) | (12) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (21) | 28 | — | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 27, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 10 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 25 |
| Interest at 10.7% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 10 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 22 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 16 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Working capital | 32 | 38 | 46 | 54 | 65 | 77 |
| Net block and other assets | 66 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 66 |
| Debt | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| Equity | 18 | 25 | 33 | 44 | 57 | 73 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19% | 4.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹101 | (34.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.