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Model Note · PARAG MILK FOODS LTD. · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD. Discounted cash flow · base FY26
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD.
Value per share, this model₹88
CMP 2026-09-10₹266.10
Difference(66.7)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of PARAG MILK FOODS LTD., built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
11% a year
FY26 11.2% · 5-yr CAGR 15.7%
EBITDA margin
6.6%
FY26 6.6% · 5-yr average 0.7%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
1.9% · 2.8%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 1.9% · 2.8%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
18.5% · 11.4%
68 working-capital days · effective 11.4%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.5
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹537 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹537 cr
Shares
12.50 crore
12.50 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
3,818
4,237
4,704
5,221
5,795
6,433
growth %
11.2
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
EBITDA
251
280
310
345
382
425
Depreciation
(71)
(81)
(89)
(99)
(110)
(122)
NOPAT
160
176
196
217
241
268
less capex
(106)
(119)
(126)
(133)
(140)
(147)
less working-capital build
—
(78)
(86)
(96)
(106)
(118)
Free cash flow to firm
—
61
73
88
106
125
Present value
58
63
68
73
78
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · PARAG MILK FOODS LTD. · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
340
PV of the terminal value (79% of EV)
1,303
Enterprise value
1,643
less net debt
(537)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
1,106
÷ 12.50 crore shares
₹88
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
93
103
116
131
150
10.5%
82
91
101
113
128
11.0%
73
80
88
99
111
11.5%
65
71
78
86
96
12.0%
58
63
69
76
84
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
