Models
PARSVNATH DEVELOPER LTDPARSVNATH
₹-29per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(29)implied FY25 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 15.1×
Against CMP ₹1.87−1632.4%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3073%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(37)₹(12)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1₹19
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 443 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,199 |
| Enterprise value | 1,642 |
| less net debt | (2,889) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (1,247) |
| ÷ 43.52 crore shares | ₹(29) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (27) | (25) | (21) | (17) | (12) |
| 10.50% | (30) | (28) | (25) | (22) | (18) |
| 11.00% | (33) | (31) | (29) | (26) | (23) |
| 11.50% | (35) | (33) | (31) | (29) | (27) |
| 12.00% | (37) | (35) | (34) | (32) | (30) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1.87; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (33) · (29) · (23) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.91 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 899 | 440 | 462 | 254 | 241 | 229 | 218 | 207 | 196 |
| growth % | 151.0 | (51.0) | 5.0 | (45.1) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | (56) | (232) | (18) | 108 | 103 | 98 | 93 | 88 | 84 |
| margin % | (6.2) | (52.7) | (3.9) | 42.7 | 42.7 | 42.7 | 42.7 | 42.7 | 42.7 |
| less depreciation | (57) | (66) | (57) | (52) | (50) | (47) | (45) | (43) | (40) |
| EBIT | (113) | (298) | (75) | 56 | 53 | 51 | 48 | 46 | 43 |
| less tax on EBIT | (14) | (13) | (13) | (12) | (12) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 42 | 40 | 38 | 36 | 34 | 32 | |||
| add depreciation | 57 | 66 | 57 | 52 | 50 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 40 |
| less capex | 0 | (50) | (61) | (94) | (90) | (78) | (67) | (58) | (49) |
| less working-capital build | — | 112 | 106 | 101 | 96 | 91 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 468 | 325 | 201 | — | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 115 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 106 | 97 | 88 | 80 | 72 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,920, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 56 | 53 | 51 | 48 | 46 | 43 |
| Interest at 15.4% on debt | (450) | (450) | (450) | (450) | (450) | |
| Profit before tax | (396) | (399) | (402) | (404) | (406) | |
| Profit after tax | (347) | (297) | (299) | (300) | (302) | (304) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 31 | (194) | (417) | (639) | (860) | (1,081) |
| Working capital | 2,236 | 2,124 | 2,018 | 1,917 | 1,821 | 1,730 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,133 | 3,173 | 3,203 | 3,226 | 3,241 | 3,249 |
| Debt | 2,920 | 2,920 | 2,920 | 2,920 | 2,920 | 2,920 |
| Equity | (1,924) | (2,220) | (2,519) | (2,819) | (3,122) | (3,426) |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (135) | (145) | (155) | (164) | (172) | |
| Investing (capex) | (90) | (78) | (67) | (58) | (49) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (225) | (223) | (222) | (221) | (221) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (225) | (223) | (222) | (221) | (221) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 42.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(29) | (1632.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.