Models
PATEL ENGINEERING LTD.PATELENGConstruction
₹45per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹45implied FY26 P/E 14.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.2×
Against CMP ₹25.76+76.0%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies(10.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹34₹68
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹22₹41
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,471 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,864 |
| Enterprise value | 5,335 |
| less net debt | (836) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,499 |
| ÷ 99.21 crore shares | ₹45 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 47 | 51 | 56 | 61 | 68 |
| 10.50% | 43 | 46 | 50 | 55 | 60 |
| 11.00% | 39 | 42 | 45 | 49 | 54 |
| 11.50% | 36 | 39 | 41 | 45 | 48 |
| 12.00% | 34 | 36 | 38 | 41 | 44 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹25.76; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 37 · 45 · 56 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,202 | 4,544 | 5,093 | 5,103 | 5,103 | 5,103 | 5,103 | 5,103 | 5,103 |
| growth % | 24.3 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBITDA | 624 | 776 | 582 | 522 | 520 | 520 | 520 | 520 | 520 |
| margin % | 14.9 | 17.1 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| less depreciation | (93) | (98) | (100) | (104) | (102) | (102) | (102) | (102) | (102) |
| EBIT | 531 | 678 | 482 | 418 | 418 | 418 | 418 | 418 | 418 |
| less tax on EBIT | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | |||
| NOPAT | 392 | 392 | 392 | 392 | 392 | 392 | |||
| add depreciation | 93 | 98 | 100 | 104 | 102 | 102 | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| less capex | (183) | (159) | (90) | (110) | (112) | (115) | (117) | (120) | (122) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 509 | 529 | 273 | — | 382 | 380 | 377 | 375 | 372 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 363 | 325 | 291 | 260 | 233 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,216, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 418 | 418 | 418 | 418 | 418 | 418 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (97) | (97) | (97) | (97) | (97) | |
| Profit before tax | 321 | 321 | 321 | 321 | 321 | |
| Profit after tax | 294 | 301 | 301 | 301 | 301 | 301 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 380 | 671 | 959 | 1,245 | 1,528 | 1,809 |
| Working capital | (587) | (587) | (587) | (587) | (587) | (587) |
| Net block and other assets | 9,729 | 9,740 | 9,752 | 9,768 | 9,785 | 9,806 |
| Debt | 1,216 | 1,216 | 1,216 | 1,216 | 1,216 | 1,216 |
| Equity | 4,442 | 4,743 | 5,045 | 5,346 | 5,647 | 5,948 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 403 | 403 | 403 | 403 | 403 | |
| Investing (capex) | (112) | (115) | (117) | (120) | (122) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 291 | 288 | 286 | 283 | 281 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 291 | 288 | 286 | 283 | 281 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0% | 10.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹45 | 76.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.