Models
PATEL RETAIL LIMITEDPATELRMARTRetailing
₹36per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹36implied FY26 P/E 2.8× · EV/EBITDA 3.3×
Against CMP ₹203.10−82.1%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹21₹67
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹150₹266
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 67 |
| PV of terminal value | 173 |
| Enterprise value | 241 |
| less net debt | (119) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 122 |
| ÷ 3.34 crore shares | ₹36 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 39 | 44 | 50 | 58 | 67 |
| 10.50% | 33 | 38 | 43 | 49 | 56 |
| 11.00% | 29 | 32 | 36 | 41 | 47 |
| 11.50% | 25 | 28 | 31 | 35 | 40 |
| 12.00% | 21 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹203.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (11) · 36 · 78 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,048 | 1,132 | 1,223 | 1,321 | 1,426 | 1,540 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 72 | 78 | 84 | 91 | 98 | 106 |
| margin % | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| less depreciation | (18) | (20) | (22) | (24) | (26) | (28) |
| EBIT | 54 | 58 | 62 | 67 | 73 | 79 |
| less tax on EBIT | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (19) | (20) |
| NOPAT | 40 | 43 | 46 | 50 | 54 | 59 |
| add depreciation | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 28 |
| less capex | (17) | (19) | (22) | (25) | (29) | (33) |
| less working-capital build | — | (27) | (29) | (31) | (34) | (36) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 17 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 123, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 54 | 58 | 62 | 67 | 73 | 79 |
| Interest at 10% on debt | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
| Profit before tax | 45 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 66 | |
| Profit after tax | 39 | 34 | 37 | 41 | 45 | 49 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 13 | 21 | 29 | 37 | 45 |
| Working capital | 333 | 360 | 388 | 419 | 453 | 489 |
| Net block and other assets | 282 | 281 | 282 | 283 | 287 | 292 |
| Debt | 123 | 123 | 123 | 123 | 123 | 123 |
| Equity | 364 | 398 | 435 | 476 | 521 | 570 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 28 | 30 | 34 | 37 | 41 | |
| Investing (capex) | (19) | (22) | (25) | (29) | (33) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 6.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹36 | (82.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.