Models
PG FOILS LTD.BSE 526747Non - Ferrous Metals
₹-116per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(116)implied FY26 P/E (5.0)× · EV/EBITDA (0.3)×
Against CMP ₹225.00−151.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31340%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(118)₹(114)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹166₹294
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (4) |
| PV of terminal value | 6 |
| Enterprise value | 2 |
| less net debt | (139) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (137) |
| ÷ 1.18 crore shares | ₹(116) |
340% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (116) | (116) | (115) | (115) | (114) |
| 10.50% | (117) | (116) | (116) | (115) | (115) |
| 11.00% | (117) | (117) | (116) | (116) | (115) |
| 11.50% | (117) | (117) | (117) | (116) | (116) |
| 12.00% | (118) | (118) | (117) | (117) | (117) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹225.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (117) · (116) · (116) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −1.00 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 337 | 317 | 491 | 318 | 303 | 287 | 273 | 259 | 246 |
| growth % | (14.5) | (6.0) | 54.9 | (35.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | (7) | (21) | 13 | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) |
| margin % | (2.2) | (6.5) | 2.7 | (1.7) | (1.7) | (1.7) | (1.7) | (1.7) | (1.7) |
| less depreciation | (4) | (4) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) |
| EBIT | (11) | (25) | 7 | (12) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) |
| less tax on EBIT | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |||
| NOPAT | (9) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| less capex | 0 | (4) | (16) | (11) | (10) | (9) | (8) | (7) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 77 | 16 | 1 | — | (2) | (2) | (1) | (0) | 1 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (2) | (1) | (1) | (0) | 0 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 141, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (12) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) |
| Interest at 11.2% on debt | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | |
| Profit before tax | (27) | (26) | (26) | (25) | (25) | |
| Profit after tax | (8) | (20) | (20) | (19) | (19) | (19) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | (12) | (25) | (38) | (50) | (61) |
| Working capital | 205 | 194 | 185 | 176 | 167 | 158 |
| Net block and other assets | 297 | 301 | 304 | 307 | 308 | 309 |
| Debt | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 |
| Equity | 330 | 310 | 290 | 270 | 251 | 233 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (9) | (8) | (7) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (14) | (13) | (13) | (12) | (11) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (14) | (13) | (13) | (12) | (11) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | -1.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(116) | (151.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.