Models
PNGS GARGI FASHION JEWELLERY LBSE 543709Consumer Durables
₹546per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹546implied FY26 P/E 12.0× · EV/EBITDA 14.4×
Against CMP ₹533.00+2.4%close of 23 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies16.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹417₹802
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹532₹1,197
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 116 |
| PV of terminal value | 454 |
| Enterprise value | 570 |
| less net debt | 1 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 571 |
| ÷ 1.05 crore shares | ₹546 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 564 | 607 | 659 | 723 | 802 |
| 10.50% | 519 | 555 | 597 | 648 | 710 |
| 11.00% | 480 | 510 | 546 | 587 | 637 |
| 11.50% | 447 | 472 | 502 | 537 | 578 |
| 12.00% | 417 | 439 | 465 | 494 | 528 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹533.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 436 · 540 · 668 |
| Draws below the CMP | 47% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.34 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 29 | 50 | 126 | 149 | 176 | 208 | 245 | 290 | 342 |
| growth % | — | 76.1 | 150.3 | 18.2 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| EBITDA | 7 | 11 | 37 | 39 | 47 | 55 | 65 | 76 | 90 |
| margin % | 22.9 | 22.2 | 29.6 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 26.4 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| EBIT | 6 | 11 | 37 | 38 | 45 | 53 | 62 | 73 | 86 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (19) | (23) | |||
| NOPAT | 28 | 33 | 39 | 46 | 54 | 64 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| less capex | (1) | (0) | (1) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) |
| less working-capital build | — | (10) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (19) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1 | (12) | 17 | — | 20 | 25 | 30 | 36 | 44 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 38 | 45 | 53 | 62 | 73 | 86 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 45 | 53 | 62 | 73 | 86 | |
| Profit after tax | 31 | 33 | 39 | 46 | 54 | 64 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 21 | 46 | 76 | 112 | 156 |
| Working capital | 56 | 66 | 77 | 91 | 108 | 127 |
| Net block and other assets | 111 | 114 | 116 | 118 | 120 | 121 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 142 | 175 | 214 | 260 | 314 | 378 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 25 | 29 | 35 | 41 | 48 | |
| Investing (capex) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 20 | 25 | 30 | 36 | 44 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 20 | 25 | 30 | 36 | 44 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18% | 26.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹546 | 2.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.