PNGS REVA DIAMOND JEWEL L — valuation model

PNGS REVA DIAMOND JEWEL LPNGSREVAConsumer Durables

₹278per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹278implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 9.8×

Against CMP ₹517.15−46.2%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹212₹411

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹324₹644

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	223
PV of terminal value	710
Enterprise value	934
less net debt	(52)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	882
÷ 3.17 crore shares	₹278

76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	288	310	337	370	411
10.50%	264	283	305	331	363
11.00%	244	260	278	300	326
11.50%	227	240	256	273	295
12.00%	212	223	236	251	269

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹517.15; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	222 · 276 · 338
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.76
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.59
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.18

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	439	474	512	553	597	645
growth %	—	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0
EBITDA	95	102	111	119	129	139
margin %	21.6	21.6	21.6	21.6	21.6	21.6
less depreciation	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
EBIT	94	101	110	118	128	138
less tax on EBIT	(24)	(26)	(28)	(30)	(32)	(35)
NOPAT	71	76	82	89	96	103
add depreciation	1	1	1	1	1	1
less capex	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)
less working-capital build	—	(25)	(27)	(30)	(32)	(35)
Free cash flow to firm	—	49	53	58	63	68
Discount factor		0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value		47	46	45	44	43

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 166, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	94	101	110	118	128	138
Interest at 5.9% on debt		(10)	(10)	(10)	(10)	(10)
Profit before tax		92	100	109	118	128
Profit after tax	65	69	75	81	88	96
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	114	156	202	253	308	369
Working capital	318	343	371	400	432	467
Net block and other assets	284	285	286	287	288	288
Debt	166	166	166	166	166	166
Equity	515	584	658	740	828	924
Balance check	0	(0)	0	(0)	(0)	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		44	48	53	57	63
Investing (capex)		(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		42	46	51	56	61
Free cash flow to equity		42	46	51	56	61

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	8%	21.6%	11.00%	5%	₹278	(46.2)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.