Models
POKARNA LIMITEDPOKARNAConsumer Durables
₹24per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹24implied FY26 P/E 0.8× · EV/EBITDA 2.9×
Against CMP ₹678.00−96.4%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY31146%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(42)₹158
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹675₹1,146
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (224) |
| PV of terminal value | 711 |
| Enterprise value | 488 |
| less net debt | (413) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 75 |
| ÷ 3.10 crore shares | ₹24 |
146% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 32 | 55 | 83 | 116 | 158 |
| 10.50% | 9 | 28 | 51 | 78 | 111 |
| 11.00% | (11) | 5 | 24 | 46 | 73 |
| 11.50% | (27) | (14) | 2 | 20 | 42 |
| 12.00% | (42) | (30) | (17) | (2) | 16 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹678.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (29) · 25 · 86 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 728 | 688 | 930 | 572 | 543 | 516 | 490 | 466 | 442 |
| growth % | 12.0 | (5.5) | 35.3 | (38.5) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 170 | 210 | 326 | 168 | 159 | 151 | 144 | 136 | 130 |
| margin % | 23.3 | 30.5 | 35.0 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.3 |
| less depreciation | (42) | (43) | (44) | (49) | (47) | (44) | (42) | (40) | (38) |
| EBIT | 128 | 167 | 282 | 119 | 112 | 107 | 101 | 96 | 92 |
| less tax on EBIT | (33) | (31) | (29) | (28) | (26) | (25) | |||
| NOPAT | 86 | 82 | 78 | 74 | 70 | 66 | |||
| add depreciation | 42 | 43 | 44 | 49 | 47 | 44 | 42 | 40 | 38 |
| less capex | (33) | (43) | (98) | (327) | (311) | (235) | (165) | (103) | (46) |
| less working-capital build | — | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 104 | 146 | 93 | — | (170) | (101) | (39) | 18 | 69 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (162) | (87) | (30) | 12 | 43 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 426, dividends at 2.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 119 | 112 | 107 | 101 | 96 | 92 |
| Interest at 7.9% on debt | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | |
| Profit before tax | 79 | 73 | 68 | 63 | 58 | |
| Profit after tax | 81 | 57 | 53 | 49 | 46 | 42 |
| Dividends | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 14 | (183) | (310) | (374) | (382) | (339) |
| Working capital | 236 | 225 | 213 | 203 | 193 | 183 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,366 | 1,630 | 1,820 | 1,944 | 2,006 | 2,014 |
| Debt | 426 | 426 | 426 | 426 | 426 | 426 |
| Equity | 857 | 913 | 965 | 1,013 | 1,057 | 1,098 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 116 | 109 | 102 | 96 | 90 | |
| Investing (capex) | (311) | (235) | (165) | (103) | (46) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | (196) | (127) | (65) | (8) | 43 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (195) | (126) | (63) | (7) | 44 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 29.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹24 | (96.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.