PREMIER EXPLOSIVES LTD — valuation model

PREMIER EXPLOSIVES LTDPREMEXPLNChemicals & Petrochemicals

₹41per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹41implied FY26 P/E 6.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.1×

Against CMP ₹563.90−92.7%close of 28 Oct 2026

Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs

Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹32₹59

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹378₹830

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	41
PV of terminal value	162
Enterprise value	203
less net debt	19
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	222
÷ 5.38 crore shares	₹41

80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	43	46	49	54	59
10.50%	39	42	45	48	53
11.00%	37	39	41	44	48
11.50%	34	36	38	41	44
12.00%	32	34	36	38	40

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹563.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	35 · 41 · 49
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.72
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.67
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.03

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	202	272	417	388	369	350	333	316	300
growth %	1.5	34.5	53.6	(7.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)
EBITDA	26	58	58	33	32	30	29	27	26
margin %	12.8	21.5	13.9	8.6	8.6	8.6	8.6	8.6	8.6
less depreciation	(10)	(12)	(11)	(12)	(11)	(11)	(10)	(9)	(9)
EBIT	16	47	47	22	21	20	19	18	17
less tax on EBIT				(5)	(5)	(5)	(5)	(4)	(4)
NOPAT				16	16	15	14	13	13
add depreciation	10	12	11	12	11	11	10	9	9
less capex	(14)	(23)	(13)	(28)	(27)	(22)	(18)	(14)	(11)
less working-capital build				—	6	5	5	5	5
Free cash flow to firm	7	56	105	—	6	9	11	14	16
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					6	7	9	9	10

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 32, dividends at 5.9% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	22	21	20	19	18	17
Interest at 9.3% on debt		(3)	(3)	(3)	(3)	(3)
Profit before tax		18	17	16	15	14
Profit after tax	46	13	13	12	11	10
Dividends	(3)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	51	54	59	68	78	91
Working capital	115	109	104	99	94	89
Net block and other assets	317	333	344	352	357	359
Debt	32	32	32	32	32	32
Equity	290	303	315	326	336	346
Balance check	0	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		30	29	27	26	24
Investing (capex)		(27)	(22)	(18)	(14)	(11)
Financing (dividends)		(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Net change in cash		3	6	8	11	13
Free cash flow to equity		4	6	9	11	13

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	-5%	8.6%	11.00%	5%	₹41	(92.7)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.