Models
PRIME SECURITIES LIMITEDPRIMESECUFinance
₹174per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹174implied FY26 P/E 105.7× · EV/EBITDA 60.9×
Against CMP ₹285.25−38.8%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies44.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3185%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹131₹261
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹247₹325
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 90 |
| PV of terminal value | 499 |
| Enterprise value | 589 |
| less net debt | 3 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 592 |
| ÷ 3.39 crore shares | ₹174 |
85% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 181 | 195 | 213 | 234 | 261 |
| 10.50% | 165 | 177 | 192 | 209 | 230 |
| 11.00% | 152 | 163 | 174 | 189 | 206 |
| 11.50% | 141 | 150 | 160 | 172 | 185 |
| 12.00% | 131 | 139 | 147 | 157 | 169 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹285.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 122 · 173 · 242 |
| Draws below the CMP | 98% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.45 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 46 | 67 | 89 | 137 | 178 | 231 | 300 | 390 | 508 |
| growth % | 1.9 | 43.6 | 33.5 | 53.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 16 | 25 | 46 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 21 | 28 | 36 |
| margin % | 35.5 | 36.8 | 51.4 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (1) | (3) | (4) | (6) | (8) | (10) | (13) |
| EBIT | 15 | 24 | 44 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 23 |
| less tax on EBIT | 7 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 27 | |||
| NOPAT | 13 | 18 | 23 | 30 | 39 | 51 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
| less capex | (0) | (0) | (5) | (10) | (13) | (15) | (16) | (16) | (15) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (4) | 13 | 26 | — | 9 | 14 | 22 | 33 | 48 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 8 | 12 | 17 | 23 | 30 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 32.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 23 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 8 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 23 | |
| Profit after tax | 15 | 18 | 23 | 30 | 39 | 51 |
| Dividends | (5) | (6) | (8) | (10) | (13) | (17) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 45 | 76 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 285 | 293 | 302 | 311 | 317 | 320 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 256 | 268 | 284 | 304 | 330 | 364 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 22 | 29 | 37 | 49 | 63 | |
| Investing (capex) | (13) | (15) | (16) | (16) | (15) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (6) | (8) | (10) | (13) | (17) | |
| Net change in cash | 3 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 32 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 9 | 14 | 22 | 33 | 48 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 7.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹174 | (38.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.