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Model Note · RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED Discounted cash flow · base FY26
RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED
Value per share, this model₹12
CMP 2026-09-10₹204.90
Difference(94.2)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
2.5% a year
FY26 2.5% · 5-yr CAGR 5.8%
EBITDA margin
3.8%
FY26 3.8% · 5-yr average 5.6%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
0.2% · 0.3%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 0.2% · 0.3%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
18.7% · 28.6%
68 working-capital days · effective 28.6%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.47
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹4,257 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹4,257 cr
Shares
208.50 crore
208.50 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
20,412
20,922
21,445
21,982
22,531
23,094
growth %
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
EBITDA
767
795
815
835
856
878
Depreciation
(36)
(42)
(43)
(44)
(45)
(46)
NOPAT
522
538
551
565
579
594
less capex
(61)
(63)
(61)
(59)
(57)
(55)
less working-capital build
—
(95)
(98)
(100)
(103)
(105)
Free cash flow to firm
—
421
435
449
464
479
Present value
400
372
346
322
300
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · RAIL VIKAS NIGAM LIMITED · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
1,740
PV of the terminal value (74% of EV)
4,975
Enterprise value
6,715
less net debt
(4,257)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
2,458
÷ 208.50 crore shares
₹12
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
13
15
18
22
26
10.5%
10
12
15
17
21
11.0%
8
10
12
14
17
11.5%
6
8
9
11
14
12.0%
5
6
7
9
11
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
