Models
RAJ OIL MILLS LIMITEDROMLAgricultural Food & other Products
₹66per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹66implied FY26 P/E 22.8× · EV/EBITDA 17.9×
Against CMP ₹41.70+58.9%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies8.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹47₹105
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹35₹58
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 26 |
| PV of terminal value | 98 |
| Enterprise value | 124 |
| less net debt | (25) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 99 |
| ÷ 1.50 crore shares | ₹66 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 69 | 76 | 83 | 93 | 105 |
| 10.50% | 62 | 68 | 74 | 82 | 91 |
| 11.00% | 56 | 61 | 66 | 73 | 80 |
| 11.50% | 51 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 71 |
| 12.00% | 47 | 50 | 54 | 58 | 64 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹41.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 43 · 64 · 91 |
| Draws below the CMP | 9% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.25 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 140 | 125 | 114 | 151 | 197 | 256 | 333 | 432 | 562 |
| growth % | 18.4 | (11.1) | (8.2) | 32.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 20 | 26 |
| margin % | 2.3 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (2) | (2) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
| EBIT | 2 | (0) | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 21 |
| less tax on EBIT | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| NOPAT | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 20 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| less capex | (2) | (1) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (4) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (0) | (1) | 0 | — | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 26, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 21 |
| Interest at 2.1% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 20 | |
| Profit after tax | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 19 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 23 | 32 |
| Working capital | 11 | 14 | 18 | 23 | 30 | 39 |
| Net block and other assets | 32 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 30 |
| Debt | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Equity | 2 | 9 | 17 | 28 | 43 | 62 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 15 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (4) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 4.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹66 | 58.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.