Models
RANA SUGARS LTD.RANASUGDiversified FMCG
₹-3per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(3)implied FY26 P/E (8.9)× · EV/EBITDA 3.2×
Against CMP ₹13.17−125.0%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3149%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(6)₹1
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹10₹16
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 121 |
| PV of terminal value | 116 |
| Enterprise value | 236 |
| less net debt | (287) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (51) |
| ÷ 15.35 crore shares | ₹(3) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (3) | (2) | (1) | (0) | 1 |
| 10.50% | (4) | (3) | (2) | (1) | (0) |
| 11.00% | (4) | (4) | (3) | (3) | (2) |
| 11.50% | (5) | (5) | (4) | (3) | (3) |
| 12.00% | (6) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹13.17; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (9) · (3) · 2 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.95 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.22 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,627 | 1,593 | 1,713 | 1,743 | 1,778 | 1,814 | 1,850 | 1,887 | 1,925 |
| growth % | 16.2 | (2.1) | 7.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| EBITDA | 113 | 83 | 71 | 73 | 75 | 76 | 78 | 79 | 81 |
| margin % | 7.0 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| less depreciation | (31) | (35) | (27) | (38) | (39) | (40) | (41) | (42) | (42) |
| EBIT | 82 | 47 | 44 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 38 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (12) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |||
| NOPAT | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 25 | |||
| add depreciation | 31 | 35 | 27 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 42 |
| less capex | (63) | (85) | (18) | (11) | (11) | (20) | (30) | (40) | (51) |
| less working-capital build | — | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (147) | (41) | 37 | — | 47 | 38 | 30 | 21 | 11 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 44 | 33 | 23 | 14 | 7 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 321, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 35 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 38 |
| Interest at 8.3% on debt | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | (27) | |
| Profit before tax | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Profit after tax | 24 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 34 | 63 | 84 | 96 | 99 | 93 |
| Working capital | 259 | 265 | 270 | 275 | 281 | 286 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,024 | 996 | 976 | 965 | 964 | 972 |
| Debt | 321 | 321 | 321 | 321 | 321 | 321 |
| Equity | 600 | 605 | 612 | 619 | 626 | 634 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | |
| Investing (capex) | (11) | (20) | (30) | (40) | (51) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 29 | 21 | 12 | 3 | (6) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 29 | 21 | 12 | 3 | (6) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2% | 4.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(3) | (125.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.