₹361per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹361implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹875.00−58.8%close of 29 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹263₹556
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹580₹1,039
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 46 |
| PV of terminal value | 390 |
| Enterprise value | 436 |
| less net debt | (11) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 425 |
| ÷ 1.18 crore shares | ₹361 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 374 | 407 | 447 | 495 | 556 |
| 10.50% | 340 | 367 | 400 | 439 | 486 |
| 11.00% | 311 | 334 | 361 | 392 | 431 |
| 11.50% | 285 | 305 | 328 | 354 | 385 |
| 12.00% | 263 | 280 | 300 | 322 | 348 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹875.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 84 · 355 · 555 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.21 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 620 | 854 | 1,110 | 1,443 | 1,875 | 2,438 | 3,169 |
| growth % | — | 37.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 46 | 57 | 73 | 95 | 124 | 161 | 209 |
| margin % | 7.4 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (6) | (7) | (10) |
| EBIT | 44 | 54 | 70 | 91 | 118 | 154 | 200 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (15) | (20) | (26) | (34) | (44) | |
| NOPAT | 42 | 55 | 71 | 92 | 120 | 156 | |
| add depreciation | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| less capex | (4) | (15) | (19) | (20) | (19) | (17) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (41) | (53) | (69) | (89) | (116) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 3 | — | (2) | 3 | 10 | 21 | 38 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (2) | 2 | 7 | 14 | 23 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 23, dividends at 3.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 54 | 70 | 91 | 118 | 154 | 200 |
| Interest at 6.7% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 68 | 89 | 117 | 152 | 198 | |
| Profit after tax | 37 | 53 | 70 | 91 | 119 | 155 |
| Dividends | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 12 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 28 | 59 |
| Working capital | 136 | 177 | 230 | 298 | 388 | 504 |
| Net block and other assets | 431 | 446 | 462 | 476 | 485 | 487 |
| Debt | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Equity | 388 | 439 | 507 | 595 | 710 | 859 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 16 | 21 | 28 | 36 | 48 | |
| Investing (capex) | (19) | (20) | (19) | (17) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | (5) | (1) | 6 | 16 | 31 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (3) | 1 | 8 | 20 | 36 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 6.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹361 | (58.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.