ROBUST HOTELS LIMITED — valuation model

ROBUST HOTELS LIMITEDRHLLeisure Services

₹184per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹184implied FY26 P/E 11.9× · EV/EBITDA 9.5×

Against CMP ₹161.00+14.4%close of 8 Oct 2026

Growth the CMP implies6.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹129₹295

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹160₹274

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	145
PV of terminal value	322
Enterprise value	468
less net debt	(149)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	319
÷ 1.73 crore shares	₹184

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	193	211	234	261	295
10.50%	173	188	207	229	255
11.00%	156	169	184	202	224
11.50%	141	153	165	180	198
12.00%	129	138	149	162	176

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹161.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	130 · 182 · 245
Draws below the CMP	31%
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.74
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.50
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.38

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	106	122	136	148	162	176	192	209	228
growth %	—	15.2	11.3	8.8	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0
EBITDA	28	32	36	49	54	59	64	70	76
margin %	26.3	25.8	26.4	33.3	33.3	33.3	33.3	33.3	33.3
less depreciation	(17)	(18)	(18)	(17)	(19)	(20)	(22)	(24)	(26)
EBIT	11	13	18	32	35	38	42	45	50
less tax on EBIT				(9)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)
NOPAT				24	26	28	31	33	36
add depreciation	17	18	18	17	19	20	22	24	26
less capex	(5)	(9)	(5)	(3)	(3)	(9)	(15)	(23)	(32)
less working-capital build				—	0	0	0	0	0
Free cash flow to firm	23	20	49	—	41	40	37	35	31
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					39	34	29	24	19

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 152, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	32	35	38	42	45	50
Interest at 10.4% on debt		(16)	(16)	(16)	(16)	(16)
Profit before tax		19	22	26	30	34
Profit after tax	25	14	16	19	22	25
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	3	32	60	86	109	129
Working capital	(16)	(16)	(16)	(16)	(16)	(16)
Net block and other assets	939	924	913	906	904	910
Debt	152	152	152	152	152	152
Equity	742	756	773	792	813	838
Balance check	0	0	0	(0)	(0)	0
Cash flow
From operations		33	37	41	46	51
Investing (capex)		(3)	(9)	(15)	(23)	(32)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		30	28	26	23	19
Free cash flow to equity		30	28	26	23	19

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	9%	33.3%	11.00%	5%	₹184	14.4%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.