Models
ROSE MERC.LTD.BSE 512115Commercial Services & Supplies
₹648per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹648implied FY26 P/E 64.7× · EV/EBITDA 20.7×
Against CMP ₹51.50+1158.4%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹502₹940
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹51₹91
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 87 |
| PV of terminal value | 294 |
| Enterprise value | 380 |
| less net debt | 5 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 385 |
| ÷ 0.59 crore shares | ₹648 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 669 | 719 | 778 | 850 | 940 |
| 10.50% | 618 | 659 | 707 | 765 | 836 |
| 11.00% | 573 | 608 | 648 | 696 | 753 |
| 11.50% | 535 | 565 | 598 | 638 | 684 |
| 12.00% | 502 | 527 | 556 | 589 | 628 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹51.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 535 · 644 · 779 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5 | 79 | 88 | 100 | 112 | 126 | 142 | 159 |
| growth % | — | 1390.0 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | (0) | 17 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 33 |
| margin % | (2.1) | 21.0 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 20.8 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| EBIT | (0) | 16 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 33 |
| less tax on EBIT | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | ||
| NOPAT | 18 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 33 | ||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (4) | (3) | — | 18 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 28 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2, dividends at 0.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 18 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 33 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 20 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 33 | |
| Profit after tax | 12 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 32 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 8 | 25 | 45 | 67 | 92 | 120 |
| Working capital | 21 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 33 | 37 |
| Net block and other assets | 68 | 68 | 68 | 67 | 67 | 68 |
| Debt | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Equity | 87 | 107 | 130 | 155 | 184 | 216 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 20.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹648 | 1158.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.