Models
ROYAL ORCHID HOTELS LTDROHLTDLeisure Services
₹111per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹111implied FY26 P/E 11.0× · EV/EBITDA 24.1×
Against CMP ₹293.00−62.1%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies43.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹78₹177
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹269₹545
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 80 |
| PV of terminal value | 309 |
| Enterprise value | 389 |
| less net debt | (84) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 305 |
| ÷ 2.74 crore shares | ₹111 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 116 | 127 | 140 | 157 | 177 |
| 10.50% | 104 | 113 | 124 | 138 | 154 |
| 11.00% | 94 | 102 | 111 | 122 | 135 |
| 11.50% | 85 | 92 | 100 | 109 | 119 |
| 12.00% | 78 | 83 | 90 | 98 | 106 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹293.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 79 · 110 · 149 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 264 | 294 | 319 | 384 | 461 | 553 | 664 | 797 | 956 |
| growth % | 90.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 20.2 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| EBITDA | 82 | 76 | 73 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 28 | 33 | 40 |
| margin % | 31.1 | 25.9 | 22.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| less depreciation | (18) | (20) | (21) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBIT | 64 | 56 | 52 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 28 | 33 | 40 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 12 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 25 | 30 | |||
| add depreciation | 18 | 20 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | (11) | (12) | (23) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 45 | 48 | 1 | — | 14 | 17 | 21 | 25 | 30 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 98, dividends at 21.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 16 | 19 | 23 | 28 | 33 | 40 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 12 | 15 | 20 | 26 | 32 | |
| Profit after tax | 32 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 24 |
| Dividends | (7) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 14 | 21 | 30 | 41 | 56 | 75 |
| Working capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,027 | 1,027 | 1,027 | 1,027 | 1,027 | 1,027 |
| Debt | 98 | 98 | 98 | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Equity | 276 | 282 | 291 | 303 | 318 | 337 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 8 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 24 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 19 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 8 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 24 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20% | 4.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹111 | (62.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.