Models
SAHANA SYSTEM LIMITEDSAHANA
₹2,580per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,580implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 22.9×
Against CMP ₹870.00+196.6%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies(4.9)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3187%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,921₹3,899
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹685₹1,219
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 302 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,979 |
| Enterprise value | 2,281 |
| less net debt | (1) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,280 |
| ÷ 0.88 crore shares | ₹2,580 |
87% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,672 | 2,895 | 3,163 | 3,490 | 3,899 |
| 10.50% | 2,440 | 2,626 | 2,845 | 3,108 | 3,429 |
| 11.00% | 2,242 | 2,398 | 2,580 | 2,795 | 3,054 |
| 11.50% | 2,071 | 2,203 | 2,357 | 2,536 | 2,747 |
| 12.00% | 1,921 | 2,035 | 2,166 | 2,316 | 2,492 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹870.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,917 · 2,553 · 3,392 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.51 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 167 | 331 | 430 | 560 | 728 | 946 | 1,230 |
| growth % | — | 97.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 56 | 100 | 130 | 168 | 219 | 285 | 370 |
| margin % | 33.6 | 30.1 | 30.1 | 30.1 | 30.1 | 30.1 | 30.1 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (15) | (19) | (25) |
| EBIT | 55 | 93 | 121 | 157 | 204 | 266 | 346 |
| less tax on EBIT | (22) | (29) | (37) | (49) | (63) | (82) | |
| NOPAT | 71 | 92 | 120 | 156 | 203 | 263 | |
| add depreciation | 1 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 25 |
| less capex | (13) | (47) | (61) | (63) | (60) | (51) | (30) |
| less working-capital build | — | (24) | (31) | (40) | (52) | (68) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (60) | — | 16 | 37 | 70 | 119 | 191 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 15 | 32 | 54 | 82 | 119 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 18, dividends at 0.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 93 | 121 | 157 | 204 | 266 | 346 |
| Interest at 10.9% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 119 | 155 | 202 | 264 | 344 | |
| Profit after tax | 68 | 91 | 118 | 154 | 201 | 262 |
| Dividends | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 17 | 30 | 65 | 133 | 249 | 436 |
| Working capital | 79 | 103 | 134 | 174 | 226 | 294 |
| Net block and other assets | 290 | 343 | 395 | 441 | 472 | 477 |
| Debt | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Equity | 283 | 373 | 491 | 644 | 844 | 1,104 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 76 | 99 | 129 | 168 | 219 | |
| Investing (capex) | (61) | (63) | (60) | (51) | (30) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | |
| Net change in cash | 14 | 35 | 67 | 116 | 187 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 14 | 36 | 68 | 117 | 189 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 30.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,580 | 196.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.