Models
SAKTHI SUGARS LTDSAKHTISUGAgricultural Food & other Products
₹-24per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(24)implied FY26 P/E (10.4)× · EV/EBITDA 4.9×
Against CMP ₹18.02−233.2%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies18.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3162%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(31)₹(11)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹14₹23
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 161 |
| PV of terminal value | 268 |
| Enterprise value | 429 |
| less net debt | (714) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (285) |
| ÷ 11.88 crore shares | ₹(24) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (23) | (21) | (18) | (15) | (11) |
| 10.50% | (25) | (23) | (21) | (19) | (15) |
| 11.00% | (27) | (26) | (24) | (22) | (19) |
| 11.50% | (29) | (28) | (26) | (25) | (22) |
| 12.00% | (31) | (30) | (28) | (27) | (25) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹18.02; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (31) · (24) · (16) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,054 | 1,069 | 929 | 899 | 872 | 846 | 820 | 796 | 772 |
| growth % | 33.7 | 1.5 | (13.2) | (3.2) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) | (3.0) |
| EBITDA | 501 | 299 | 128 | 88 | 85 | 83 | 80 | 78 | 76 |
| margin % | 47.5 | 27.9 | 13.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 |
| less depreciation | (37) | (37) | (37) | (38) | (37) | (36) | (34) | (33) | (32) |
| EBIT | 464 | 262 | 91 | 50 | 49 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 43 |
| less tax on EBIT | (13) | (13) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 37 | 36 | 35 | 34 | 33 | 32 | |||
| add depreciation | 37 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 36 | 34 | 33 | 32 |
| less capex | (19) | (13) | (15) | (19) | (18) | (24) | (29) | (34) | (39) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 88 | 101 | 26 | — | 55 | 47 | 39 | 32 | 26 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 52 | 40 | 30 | 23 | 16 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 720, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 50 | 49 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 43 |
| Interest at 13.1% on debt | (94) | (94) | (94) | (94) | (94) | |
| Profit before tax | (45) | (47) | (48) | (50) | (51) | |
| Profit after tax | 28 | (34) | (35) | (36) | (37) | (38) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | (9) | (32) | (62) | (99) | (143) |
| Working capital | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,419 | 1,401 | 1,389 | 1,384 | 1,385 | 1,391 |
| Debt | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 |
| Equity | 228 | 195 | 160 | 124 | 88 | 50 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3 | 1 | (1) | (3) | (5) | |
| Investing (capex) | (18) | (24) | (29) | (34) | (39) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (15) | (23) | (30) | (37) | (44) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (15) | (23) | (30) | (37) | (44) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -3% | 9.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(24) | (233.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.