Models
SAMHI HOTELS LIMITEDSAMHILeisure Services
₹751per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹751implied FY26 P/E 29.1× · EV/EBITDA 33.8×
Against CMP ₹160.17+369.0%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies(17.2)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹560₹1,133
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹127₹217
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 3,882 |
| PV of terminal value | 14,352 |
| Enterprise value | 18,234 |
| less net debt | (1,549) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 16,685 |
| ÷ 22.21 crore shares | ₹751 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 779 | 843 | 920 | 1,015 | 1,133 |
| 10.50% | 711 | 765 | 828 | 904 | 997 |
| 11.00% | 654 | 699 | 751 | 813 | 888 |
| 11.50% | 604 | 642 | 686 | 738 | 799 |
| 12.00% | 560 | 593 | 631 | 674 | 725 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹160.17; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 590 · 746 · 938 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.62 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.48 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 957 | 1,130 | 1,248 | 1,379 | 1,524 | 1,684 | 1,860 | 2,056 |
| growth % | — | 18.0 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| EBITDA | 193 | 387 | 539 | 596 | 658 | 727 | 804 | 888 |
| margin % | 20.2 | 34.2 | 43.2 | 43.2 | 43.2 | 43.2 | 43.2 | 43.2 |
| less depreciation | (114) | (117) | (127) | (141) | (155) | (172) | (190) | (210) |
| EBIT | 80 | 270 | 412 | 455 | 503 | 556 | 614 | 678 |
| less tax on EBIT | 453 | 500 | 553 | 611 | 675 | 746 | ||
| NOPAT | 865 | 955 | 1,055 | 1,166 | 1,289 | 1,424 | ||
| add depreciation | 114 | 117 | 127 | 141 | 155 | 172 | 190 | 210 |
| less capex | (38) | (137) | (336) | (371) | (354) | (329) | (296) | (252) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 237 | 220 | — | 725 | 857 | 1,008 | 1,182 | 1,382 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 688 | 733 | 777 | 821 | 864 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,708, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 412 | 455 | 503 | 556 | 614 | 678 |
| Interest at 8.9% on debt | (152) | (152) | (152) | (152) | (152) | |
| Profit before tax | 303 | 351 | 404 | 462 | 526 | |
| Profit after tax | 503 | 636 | 736 | 847 | 969 | 1,105 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 159 | 564 | 1,102 | 1,791 | 2,655 | 3,718 |
| Working capital | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) |
| Net block and other assets | 4,321 | 4,551 | 4,750 | 4,908 | 5,014 | 5,056 |
| Debt | 1,708 | 1,708 | 1,708 | 1,708 | 1,708 | 1,708 |
| Equity | 2,286 | 2,922 | 3,659 | 4,506 | 5,475 | 6,580 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 777 | 892 | 1,019 | 1,159 | 1,314 | |
| Investing (capex) | (371) | (354) | (329) | (296) | (252) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 406 | 538 | 689 | 863 | 1,063 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 406 | 538 | 689 | 863 | 1,063 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 10.5% | 43.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹751 | 369.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.