Models
SANCO TRANS LTD.BSE 523116Transport Services
₹810per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹810implied FY22 P/E 18.9× · EV/EBITDA 10.2×
Against CMP ₹626.00+29.4%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies1.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2778%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹612₹1,205
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹634₹809
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY23–FY27 free cash flow | 33 |
| PV of terminal value | 120 |
| Enterprise value | 154 |
| less net debt | (8) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 146 |
| ÷ 0.18 crore shares | ₹810 |
78% of the value sits after FY27. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 838 | 905 | 985 | 1,083 | 1,205 |
| 10.50% | 769 | 824 | 889 | 968 | 1,064 |
| 11.00% | 709 | 755 | 810 | 874 | 951 |
| 11.50% | 657 | 697 | 742 | 796 | 859 |
| 12.00% | 612 | 646 | 685 | 730 | 782 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹626.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 607 · 798 · 1,027 |
| Draws below the CMP | 13% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.48 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 106 | 96 | 102 | 119 | 138 | 161 | 188 | 219 | 255 |
| growth % | — | (9.1) | 5.9 | 16.7 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| EBITDA | 5 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 24 | 28 | 32 |
| margin % | 4.6 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (5) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
| EBIT | (0) | 1 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 26 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 19 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| less capex | — | — | 0 | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | — | 7 | — | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 13, dividends at 3.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 12 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 26 |
| Interest at 13.3% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 12 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 24 | |
| Profit after tax | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 18 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 10 | 16 | 23 | 31 | 41 |
| Working capital | 20 | 24 | 27 | 32 | 37 | 43 |
| Net block and other assets | 114 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 |
| Debt | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Equity | 104 | 113 | 123 | 136 | 150 | 167 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 9 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 18 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY22 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16.5% | 12.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹810 | 29.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.