Models
SATCHMO HOLDINGS LIMITEDBSE 533202Commercial Services & Supplies
₹3,816per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹3,816implied FY26 P/E 46.8× · EV/EBITDA 47.1×
Against CMP ₹3.03+125850.1%close of 23 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,896₹5,655
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3₹7
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 10,205 |
| PV of terminal value | 45,443 |
| Enterprise value | 55,648 |
| less net debt | 5 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 55,653 |
| ÷ 14.58 crore shares | ₹3,816 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 3,948 | 4,258 | 4,631 | 5,086 | 5,655 |
| 10.50% | 3,623 | 3,881 | 4,186 | 4,552 | 4,999 |
| 11.00% | 3,346 | 3,563 | 3,816 | 4,116 | 4,475 |
| 11.50% | 3,106 | 3,291 | 3,504 | 3,753 | 4,047 |
| 12.00% | 2,896 | 3,055 | 3,237 | 3,446 | 3,691 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3.03; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,759 · 3,803 · 5,146 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 100 | 44 | 12 | 30 | 39 | 51 | 66 | 86 | 112 |
| growth % | 5.9 | (55.9) | (73.1) | 155.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (115) | (74) | 15 | 1,182 | 1,537 | 1,998 | 2,597 | 3,376 | 4,389 |
| margin % | (115.3) | (167.3) | 127.2 | 3913.1 | 3913.1 | 3913.1 | 3913.1 | 3913.1 | 3913.1 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | (115) | (74) | 15 | 1,182 | 1,536 | 1,997 | 2,596 | 3,375 | 4,387 |
| less tax on EBIT | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 18 | |||
| NOPAT | 1,186 | 1,542 | 2,005 | 2,606 | 3,388 | 4,405 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | 0 | (0) | (0) | (6) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (6) | (2) |
| less working-capital build | — | (10) | (13) | (17) | (22) | (29) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 25 | 33 | 4 | — | 1,525 | 1,985 | 2,583 | 3,362 | 4,376 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,448 | 1,697 | 1,990 | 2,333 | 2,736 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,182 | 1,536 | 1,997 | 2,596 | 3,375 | 4,387 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,536 | 1,997 | 2,596 | 3,375 | 4,387 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,189 | 1,542 | 2,005 | 2,606 | 3,388 | 4,405 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 1,531 | 3,516 | 6,099 | 9,461 | 13,837 |
| Working capital | 33 | 43 | 57 | 73 | 96 | 124 |
| Net block and other assets | 216 | 223 | 230 | 236 | 240 | 241 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 110 | 1,653 | 3,657 | 6,264 | 9,652 | 14,057 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,533 | 1,993 | 2,591 | 3,368 | 4,378 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (6) | (2) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1,525 | 1,985 | 2,583 | 3,362 | 4,376 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,525 | 1,985 | 2,583 | 3,362 | 4,376 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 3913.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹3,816 | 125850.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.