Models
SAVERA INDUSTRIES LTD.BSE 512634Leisure Services
₹349per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹349implied FY26 P/E 32.5× · EV/EBITDA 20.7×
Against CMP ₹158.80+119.7%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies7.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹269₹508
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹133₹190
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 92 |
| PV of terminal value | 320 |
| Enterprise value | 412 |
| less net debt | 4 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 416 |
| ÷ 1.19 crore shares | ₹349 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 360 | 387 | 419 | 459 | 508 |
| 10.50% | 332 | 355 | 381 | 412 | 451 |
| 11.00% | 308 | 327 | 349 | 375 | 406 |
| 11.50% | 288 | 303 | 322 | 343 | 369 |
| 12.00% | 269 | 283 | 299 | 317 | 338 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹158.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 252 · 346 · 473 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.49 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 61 | 72 | 80 | 102 | 131 | 169 | 217 | 279 | 358 |
| growth % | 92.4 | 17.4 | 10.4 | 28.4 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.5 |
| EBITDA | 17 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 33 | 42 | 54 | 70 |
| margin % | 27.3 | 18.3 | 19.7 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (3) | (3) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (14) | (18) | (24) |
| EBIT | 14 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 28 | 36 | 46 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (10) | |||
| NOPAT | 10 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 28 | 36 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 24 |
| less capex | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (7) | (12) | (19) | (28) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 9 | 6 | 10 | — | 18 | 21 | 24 | 28 | 31 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 27.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 13 | 17 | 22 | 28 | 36 | 46 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 17 | 22 | 28 | 36 | 46 | |
| Profit after tax | 13 | 13 | 17 | 22 | 28 | 36 |
| Dividends | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (10) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | 19 | 35 | 53 | 72 | 93 |
| Working capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Net block and other assets | 113 | 108 | 104 | 101 | 101 | 106 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 97 | 107 | 119 | 135 | 155 | 181 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 22 | 28 | 36 | 46 | 59 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (7) | (12) | (19) | (28) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (10) | |
| Net change in cash | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 21 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 18 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 28.5% | 19.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹349 | 119.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.