Models
SAYAJI HOTELS LTD.SAYAJIHOTLHOTELS/ RESORTS AND OTHER RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES
₹104per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹104implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 4.5×
Against CMP ₹305.00−65.8%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹75₹163
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹266₹365
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 50 |
| PV of terminal value | 173 |
| Enterprise value | 223 |
| less net debt | (40) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 183 |
| ÷ 1.75 crore shares | ₹104 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 109 | 119 | 130 | 145 | 163 |
| 10.50% | 98 | 107 | 116 | 128 | 142 |
| 11.00% | 90 | 96 | 104 | 114 | 125 |
| 11.50% | 82 | 88 | 94 | 102 | 112 |
| 12.00% | 75 | 80 | 86 | 93 | 100 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹305.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 60 · 103 · 151 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.92 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.12 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 266 | 112 | 138 | 149 | 160 | 172 | 185 | 199 | 214 |
| growth % | 63.2 | (58.0) | 23.7 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 78 | 37 | 36 | 50 | 54 | 58 | 62 | 67 | 72 |
| margin % | 29.3 | 33.2 | 25.8 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 |
| less depreciation | (20) | (11) | (15) | (26) | (28) | (30) | (32) | (35) | (37) |
| EBIT | 58 | 26 | 20 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |||
| NOPAT | 18 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 26 | |||
| add depreciation | 20 | 11 | 15 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 37 |
| less capex | (4) | (1) | (40) | (33) | (36) | (38) | (40) | (42) | (45) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 33 | 47 | (12) | — | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 44, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 24 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 22 | 24 | 26 | 29 | 31 | |
| Profit after tax | (6) | 17 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 23 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 11 | 20 | 30 | 42 | 56 |
| Working capital | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| Net block and other assets | 283 | 291 | 299 | 306 | 314 | 322 |
| Debt | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| Equity | 155 | 172 | 190 | 210 | 232 | 255 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 43 | 47 | 50 | 54 | 59 | |
| Investing (capex) | (36) | (38) | (40) | (42) | (45) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 33.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹104 | (65.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.