Models
SBEC SUGAR LTD.BSE 532102Agricultural Food & other Products
₹80per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹80implied FY26 P/E 20.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.3×
Against CMP ₹76.40+5.3%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies(5.7)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3166%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹53₹134
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹27₹89
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 222 |
| PV of terminal value | 432 |
| Enterprise value | 655 |
| less net debt | (271) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 384 |
| ÷ 4.77 crore shares | ₹80 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 85 | 94 | 104 | 118 | 134 |
| 10.50% | 75 | 82 | 91 | 102 | 115 |
| 11.00% | 67 | 73 | 80 | 89 | 100 |
| 11.50% | 60 | 65 | 71 | 78 | 87 |
| 12.00% | 53 | 58 | 63 | 69 | 76 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹76.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 59 · 81 · 106 |
| Draws below the CMP | 41% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 658 | 655 | 630 | 548 | 521 | 495 | 470 | 447 | 424 |
| growth % | 7.2 | (0.6) | (3.7) | (13.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 21 | 45 | 40 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 67 | 64 | 61 |
| margin % | 3.1 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| less depreciation | (21) | (21) | (19) | (19) | (18) | (17) | (16) | (15) | (14) |
| EBIT | (1) | 23 | 21 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 51 | 49 | 46 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| NOPAT | 58 | 55 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 44 | |||
| add depreciation | 21 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| less capex | (15) | (11) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (6) | (10) | (14) | (17) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 54 | (58) | 68 | — | 71 | 63 | 55 | 48 | 42 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 67 | 54 | 42 | 33 | 26 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 273, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 60 | 57 | 54 | 51 | 49 | 46 |
| Interest at 18.8% on debt | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | |
| Profit before tax | 5 | 3 | (0) | (3) | (5) | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 5 | 2 | (0) | (3) | (5) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 24 | 37 | 42 | 41 | 33 |
| Working capital | (118) | (118) | (118) | (118) | (118) | (118) |
| Net block and other assets | 1,019 | 1,003 | 993 | 987 | 986 | 989 |
| Debt | 273 | 273 | 273 | 273 | 273 | 273 |
| Equity | 167 | 173 | 175 | 175 | 172 | 167 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 23 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 9 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (6) | (10) | (14) | (17) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 21 | 13 | 6 | (1) | (8) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 21 | 13 | 6 | (1) | (8) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 14.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹80 | 5.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.