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Model Note · SBEC SUGAR LTD. · 9 October 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
SBEC SUGAR LTD. Discounted cash flow · base FY26
SBEC SUGAR LTD.
Value per share, this model₹80
CMP, 8 Oct 2026₹76.40
Difference5.3%
Growth the CMP implies(5.7)%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of SBEC SUGAR LTD., built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
-5% a year
FY26 (13.0)% · 5-yr CAGR (1.1)%
EBITDA margin
14.3%
FY26 14.3% · 5-yr average 6.9%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
3.4% · 0.3%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 3.4% · 0.3%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
0% · 3.8%
-78 working-capital days · effective 3.8%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.28
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹271 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹271 cr
Shares
4.77 crore
4.77 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
548
521
495
470
447
424
growth %
(13.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
EBITDA
79
75
71
67
64
61
Depreciation
(19)
(18)
(17)
(16)
(15)
(14)
NOPAT
58
55
52
49
47
44
less capex
(2)
(2)
(6)
(10)
(14)
(17)
less working-capital build
—
0
0
0
0
0
Free cash flow to firm
—
71
63
55
48
42
Present value
67
54
42
33
26
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · SBEC SUGAR LTD. · 9 October 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
222
PV of the terminal value (66% of EV)
432
Enterprise value
655
less net debt
(271)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
384
÷ 4.77 crore shares
₹80
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
85
94
104
118
134
10.5%
75
82
91
102
115
11.0%
67
73
80
89
100
11.5%
60
65
71
78
87
12.0%
53
58
63
69
76
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
