Models
SEPC LIMITEDSEPCConstruction
₹13per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹13implied FY26 P/E 101.4× · EV/EBITDA 37.7×
Against CMP ₹5.09+158.9%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies9.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹10₹20
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹5₹14
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 546 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,340 |
| Enterprise value | 2,886 |
| less net debt | (325) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,561 |
| ÷ 194.33 crore shares | ₹13 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| 10.50% | 12 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 |
| 11.00% | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| 11.50% | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| 12.00% | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5.09; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 9 · 13 · 18 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 379 | 561 | 598 | 1,054 | 1,371 | 1,782 | 2,317 | 3,012 | 3,915 |
| growth % | 15.0 | 48.1 | 6.5 | 76.4 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 72 | 26 | 37 | 76 | 100 | 130 | 169 | 220 | 286 |
| margin % | 19.0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (15) | (20) |
| EBIT | 66 | 21 | 32 | 72 | 93 | 121 | 158 | 205 | 266 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (13) | (17) | (22) | (28) | (37) | |||
| NOPAT | 62 | 80 | 104 | 136 | 176 | 229 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 20 |
| less capex | (0) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (4) | (8) | (14) | (23) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 21 | (121) | (133) | — | 86 | 109 | 139 | 177 | 225 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 81 | 93 | 107 | 123 | 141 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 351, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 72 | 93 | 121 | 158 | 205 | 266 |
| Interest at 11.5% on debt | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | (40) | |
| Profit before tax | 53 | 81 | 117 | 164 | 226 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 45 | 70 | 101 | 142 | 194 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 26 | 77 | 152 | 256 | 398 | 589 |
| Working capital | (131) | (131) | (131) | (131) | (131) | (131) |
| Net block and other assets | 3,197 | 3,192 | 3,187 | 3,183 | 3,183 | 3,187 |
| Debt | 351 | 351 | 351 | 351 | 351 | 351 |
| Equity | 1,921 | 1,966 | 2,036 | 2,137 | 2,278 | 2,473 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 52 | 78 | 112 | 157 | 214 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (4) | (8) | (14) | (23) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 51 | 74 | 104 | 142 | 191 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 51 | 74 | 104 | 142 | 191 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 7.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹13 | 158.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.