Models
SETCO AUTOMOTIVE LTDSETCO
₹-5per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(5)implied FY25 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 9.5×
Against CMP ₹17.02−128.1%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies31.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3072%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(21)₹28
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹12₹29
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 290 |
| PV of terminal value | 742 |
| Enterprise value | 1,032 |
| less net debt | (1,096) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (64) |
| ÷ 13.38 crore shares | ₹(5) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (2) | 3 | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| 10.50% | (8) | (4) | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 11.00% | (13) | (9) | (5) | 1 | 7 |
| 11.50% | (17) | (14) | (10) | (6) | (1) |
| 12.00% | (21) | (18) | (15) | (11) | (7) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹17.02; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (23) · (6) · 15 |
| Draws below the CMP | 92% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 435 | 546 | 630 | 719 | 819 | 934 | 1,065 | 1,214 | 1,384 |
| growth % | (7.5) | 25.4 | 15.4 | 14.1 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | (118) | 28 | 70 | 109 | 124 | 141 | 161 | 183 | 209 |
| margin % | (27.2) | 5.0 | 11.2 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 |
| less depreciation | (37) | (38) | (35) | (32) | (37) | (42) | (48) | (55) | (62) |
| EBIT | (156) | (11) | 36 | 77 | 87 | 99 | 113 | 129 | 147 |
| less tax on EBIT | (19) | (22) | (25) | (28) | (32) | (37) | |||
| NOPAT | 57 | 65 | 74 | 84 | 96 | 110 | |||
| add depreciation | 37 | 38 | 35 | 32 | 37 | 42 | 48 | 55 | 62 |
| less capex | 0 | (12) | (7) | (11) | (12) | (23) | (37) | (54) | (75) |
| less working-capital build | — | (15) | (17) | (20) | (23) | (26) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (125) | 36 | 62 | — | 74 | 76 | 76 | 75 | 71 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 70 | 65 | 58 | 52 | 45 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,116, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 77 | 87 | 99 | 113 | 129 | 147 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (89) | (89) | (89) | (89) | (89) | |
| Profit before tax | (2) | 10 | 24 | 39 | 57 | |
| Profit after tax | (126) | (2) | 7 | 18 | 29 | 43 |
| Dividends | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 20 | 28 | 36 | 45 | 53 | 58 |
| Working capital | 109 | 124 | 142 | 161 | 184 | 210 |
| Net block and other assets | 446 | 421 | 402 | 391 | 390 | 403 |
| Debt | 1,116 | 1,116 | 1,116 | 1,116 | 1,116 | 1,116 |
| Equity | (694) | (696) | (688) | (671) | (641) | (598) |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 20 | 32 | 46 | 61 | 79 | |
| Investing (capex) | (12) | (23) | (37) | (54) | (75) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 15.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(5) | (128.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.