Models
SHADOWFAX TECHNOLOGIES LSHADOWFAXTransport Services
₹24per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹24implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 5.2×
Against CMP ₹255.00−90.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3183%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹19₹33
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹99₹269
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 181 |
| PV of terminal value | 912 |
| Enterprise value | 1,094 |
| less net debt | 284 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,378 |
| ÷ 58.51 crore shares | ₹24 |
83% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 24 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 |
| 10.50% | 23 | 24 | 25 | 27 | 29 |
| 11.00% | 21 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 27 |
| 11.50% | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 25 |
| 12.00% | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹255.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 16 · 23 · 31 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.94 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.29 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,202 | 4,539 | 4,902 | 5,294 | 5,717 | 6,175 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 212 | 227 | 245 | 265 | 286 | 309 |
| margin % | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| less depreciation | (117) | (127) | (137) | (148) | (160) | (173) |
| EBIT | 94 | 100 | 108 | 116 | 126 | 136 |
| less tax on EBIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| NOPAT | 95 | 101 | 109 | 118 | 127 | 137 |
| add depreciation | 117 | 127 | 137 | 148 | 160 | 173 |
| less capex | (185) | (200) | (203) | (205) | (207) | (207) |
| less working-capital build | — | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 17 | 32 | 48 | 66 | 88 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 16 | 27 | 37 | 46 | 55 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 94 | 100 | 108 | 116 | 126 | 136 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 100 | 108 | 116 | 126 | 136 | |
| Profit after tax | 112 | 101 | 109 | 117 | 127 | 137 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 284 | 302 | 333 | 381 | 447 | 535 |
| Working capital | 135 | 145 | 157 | 170 | 183 | 198 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,415 | 2,488 | 2,553 | 2,610 | 2,657 | 2,692 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,745 | 1,846 | 1,954 | 2,072 | 2,199 | 2,336 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 217 | 234 | 253 | 273 | 295 | |
| Investing (capex) | (200) | (203) | (205) | (207) | (207) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 17 | 31 | 48 | 66 | 88 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 17 | 31 | 48 | 66 | 88 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹24 | (90.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.