Models
SHOPPERS STOP LIMITEDSHOPERSTOPRetailing
₹157per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹157implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 2.7×
Against CMP ₹394.35−60.2%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies42.4%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3126%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹142₹186
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹276₹572
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,444 |
| PV of terminal value | 507 |
| Enterprise value | 1,951 |
| less net debt | (223) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,728 |
| ÷ 11.01 crore shares | ₹157 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 161 | 165 | 171 | 177 | 186 |
| 10.50% | 155 | 159 | 163 | 169 | 175 |
| 11.00% | 150 | 153 | 157 | 161 | 167 |
| 11.50% | 146 | 148 | 152 | 155 | 160 |
| 12.00% | 142 | 144 | 147 | 150 | 153 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹394.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 49 · 155 · 259 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.99 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.07 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,022 | 4,317 | 4,628 | 5,043 | 5,497 | 5,992 | 6,531 | 7,119 | 7,760 |
| growth % | 59.7 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 693 | 710 | 708 | 725 | 792 | 863 | 940 | 1,025 | 1,117 |
| margin % | 17.2 | 16.5 | 15.3 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 |
| less depreciation | (382) | (437) | (494) | (541) | (588) | (641) | (699) | (762) | (830) |
| EBIT | 312 | 274 | 214 | 184 | 203 | 222 | 242 | 263 | 287 |
| less tax on EBIT | (46) | (51) | (56) | (61) | (66) | (72) | |||
| NOPAT | 138 | 152 | 166 | 181 | 197 | 215 | |||
| add depreciation | 382 | 437 | 494 | 541 | 588 | 641 | 699 | 762 | 830 |
| less capex | (146) | (176) | (182) | (139) | (154) | (318) | (511) | (735) | (996) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 397 | 385 | 366 | — | 586 | 489 | 369 | 223 | 49 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 557 | 418 | 284 | 155 | 31 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 236, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 184 | 203 | 222 | 242 | 263 | 287 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | |
| Profit before tax | 185 | 203 | 223 | 245 | 268 | |
| Profit after tax | (36) | 138 | 152 | 167 | 183 | 201 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13 | 585 | 1,060 | 1,415 | 1,624 | 1,659 |
| Working capital | (269) | (269) | (269) | (269) | (269) | (269) |
| Net block and other assets | 6,547 | 6,113 | 5,790 | 5,602 | 5,576 | 5,742 |
| Debt | 236 | 236 | 236 | 236 | 236 | 236 |
| Equity | 291 | 429 | 581 | 748 | 931 | 1,131 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 726 | 793 | 866 | 945 | 1,031 | |
| Investing (capex) | (154) | (318) | (511) | (735) | (996) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 572 | 475 | 355 | 209 | 35 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 572 | 475 | 355 | 209 | 35 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 14.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹157 | (60.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.