SHRI GANG INDUSTRIES AND ALLIE — valuation model

SHRI GANG INDUSTRIES AND ALLIEBSE 523309Beverages

₹229per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹229implied FY26 P/E 22.9× · EV/EBITDA 14.9×

Against CMP ₹57.45+297.9%close of 2026-09-21

Growth the CMP implies(13.6)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹171₹343

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹52₹104

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	124
PV of terminal value	416
Enterprise value	540
less net debt	(49)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	491
÷ 2.15 crore shares	₹229

77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	237	256	279	308	343
10.50%	217	233	252	274	302
11.00%	199	213	229	247	270
11.50%	184	196	209	225	243
12.00%	171	181	192	205	221

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹57.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	179 · 227 · 287
Draws below the CMP	0%
Rank correlation with revenue growth	+0.58
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.55
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.55

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	139	289	353	402	459	523	596	680	775
growth %	72.9	108.1	22.2	14.1	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0
EBITDA	18	34	48	36	41	47	54	61	70
margin %	12.9	11.8	13.7	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0
less depreciation	(3)	(5)	(6)	(6)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(10)	(11)
EBIT	14	29	43	30	35	40	45	52	59
less tax on EBIT				(8)	(9)	(10)	(12)	(14)	(16)
NOPAT				22	26	29	33	38	43
add depreciation	3	5	6	6	6	7	8	10	11
less capex	(26)	(7)	(6)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(9)	(11)	(13)
less working-capital build				—	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)
Free cash flow to firm	(13)	7	39	—	26	29	32	36	40
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					25	25	25	25	25

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 49, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	30	35	40	45	52	59
Interest at 8.7% on debt		(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)	(4)
Profit before tax		31	35	41	47	55
Profit after tax	19	22	26	30	35	40
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	0	23	49	78	110	147
Working capital	5	6	6	7	8	9
Net block and other assets	151	150	150	150	151	153
Debt	49	49	49	49	49	49
Equity	52	74	100	130	165	205
Balance check	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cash flow
From operations		28	33	38	43	50
Investing (capex)		(6)	(7)	(9)	(11)	(13)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		23	26	29	33	37
Free cash flow to equity		23	26	29	33	37

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	14%	9%	11.00%	5%	₹229	297.9%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.