Models
SHRI GANG INDUSTRIES AND ALLIEBSE 523309Beverages
₹231per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹231implied FY26 P/E 22.1× · EV/EBITDA 14.9×
Against CMP ₹50.00+362.1%close of 6 Nov 2026
Growth the CMP implies(15.9)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹173₹347
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹40₹97
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 124 |
| PV of terminal value | 416 |
| Enterprise value | 540 |
| less net debt | (49) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 491 |
| ÷ 2.12 crore shares | ₹231 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 239 | 259 | 282 | 311 | 347 |
| 10.50% | 219 | 235 | 254 | 277 | 305 |
| 11.00% | 201 | 215 | 231 | 250 | 272 |
| 11.50% | 186 | 198 | 211 | 227 | 245 |
| 12.00% | 173 | 183 | 194 | 208 | 223 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹50.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 181 · 230 · 290 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.55 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 139 | 289 | 353 | 402 | 459 | 523 | 596 | 680 | 775 |
| growth % | 72.9 | 108.1 | 22.2 | 14.1 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 18 | 34 | 48 | 36 | 41 | 47 | 54 | 61 | 70 |
| margin % | 12.9 | 11.8 | 13.7 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (10) | (11) |
| EBIT | 14 | 29 | 43 | 30 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 52 | 59 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (9) | (10) | (12) | (14) | (16) | |||
| NOPAT | 22 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 38 | 43 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| less capex | (26) | (7) | (6) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (13) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (13) | 7 | 39 | — | 26 | 29 | 32 | 36 | 40 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 49, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 30 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 52 | 59 |
| Interest at 8.7% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 31 | 35 | 41 | 47 | 55 | |
| Profit after tax | 19 | 22 | 26 | 30 | 35 | 40 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 23 | 49 | 78 | 110 | 147 |
| Working capital | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| Net block and other assets | 151 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 151 | 153 |
| Debt | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| Equity | 52 | 74 | 100 | 130 | 165 | 205 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 28 | 33 | 38 | 43 | 50 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6) | (7) | (9) | (11) | (13) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 23 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 37 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 23 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 37 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹231 | 362.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.