Models
Shri Niwas Leasing and FinanceBSE 538897
₹20,287per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹20,287implied FY26 P/E 46.1× · EV/EBITDA 45.9×
Against CMP ₹23.10+87722.0%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹15,396₹30,061
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹8₹23
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 8,935 |
| PV of terminal value | 39,717 |
| Enterprise value | 48,652 |
| less net debt | 0 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 48,652 |
| ÷ 2.40 crore shares | ₹20,287 |
82% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 20,985 | 22,635 | 24,615 | 27,036 | 30,061 |
| 10.50% | 19,261 | 20,632 | 22,253 | 24,197 | 26,574 |
| 11.00% | 17,786 | 18,940 | 20,287 | 21,878 | 23,788 |
| 11.50% | 16,510 | 17,493 | 18,627 | 19,949 | 21,512 |
| 12.00% | 15,396 | 16,241 | 17,206 | 18,320 | 19,619 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹23.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 14,723 · 20,180 · 27,304 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| growth % | 21.2 | 36.8 | 12.7 | 178.8 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 0 | (1) | (1,163) | 1,060 | 1,378 | 1,791 | 2,328 | 3,027 | 3,935 |
| margin % | 2.4 | (287.2) | (218412.1) | 71364.5 | 71364.5 | 71364.5 | 71364.5 | 71364.5 | 71364.5 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| EBIT | 0 | (1) | (1,163) | 1,060 | 1,378 | 1,791 | 2,328 | 3,027 | 3,935 |
| less tax on EBIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| NOPAT | 1,060 | 1,378 | 1,791 | 2,328 | 3,027 | 3,935 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| less working-capital build | — | (39) | (50) | (65) | (85) | (111) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 0 | (0) | (0) | — | 1,339 | 1,741 | 2,263 | 2,942 | 3,824 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 1,271 | 1,488 | 1,743 | 2,042 | 2,391 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,060 | 1,378 | 1,791 | 2,328 | 3,027 | 3,935 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,378 | 1,791 | 2,328 | 3,027 | 3,935 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,060 | 1,378 | 1,791 | 2,328 | 3,027 | 3,935 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 1,339 | 3,080 | 5,343 | 8,285 | 12,109 |
| Working capital | 129 | 168 | 218 | 283 | 368 | 479 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,059 | 1,059 | 1,059 | 1,059 | 1,059 | 1,059 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | (82) | 1,296 | 3,087 | 5,415 | 8,442 | 12,377 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,339 | 1,741 | 2,263 | 2,942 | 3,824 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1,339 | 1,741 | 2,263 | 2,942 | 3,824 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,339 | 1,741 | 2,263 | 2,942 | 3,824 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 71364.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹20,287 | 87722.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.